China Strategic Review
China Strategic Review - 3-4/2020
Release Time:2020-04-28
The Mountain Goddess is Standing Steadily
Yuan Ze

The beginning of the Chinese Lunar Year of the Rat marks the beginning of a new sixty-year-cycle, and sees the outbreak of a novel coronavirus pneumonia. The Chinese Government and people, under the direct deployment and command of General Secretary Xi Jinping, waged a people's war against the virus with the most thorough and rigorous prevention and control measures. In the fight against the epidemic, Chinese people stood united, irrespective of region and age. Chinese government adopted decisive measures and unprecedented tactics with an overall planning in epidemic response. If Wuhan wins, Hubei wins; if Hubei wins, China wins. There is a famous saying from Chairman Mao Zedong’s poem Swimming, “Wind batters me, waves hit me-l don't care. Better than walking lazily in the patio.” The line was composed by Chairman Mao when he was swimming across Yangtze River in Wuhan, Hubei province. With an all-round counterattack, the turning point of the battle against the epidemic has quietly arrived. The development of the situation has proved that the CPC Central Committee's judgment on the epidemic situation is accurate, all work arrangements are timely, and the measures taken are effective. "If the goddess of these mountains is not dead she will marvel at the changed world." (Mao Zedong) In Hubei province, cities are springing back to life. Flowers bloom and spread even better than Suzhou and Hangzhou. Tourists can enjoy the view of the Yellow Crane Tower and the cherry blossoms of Wuhan University, and the taste of Baiyunbian Liquor and Wuchang fish again. Let’s honor those people who braved a dangerous situation with lofty ideals and the boundless love.

COVID-19 is a "global public enemy"

WHO has named the novel coronavirus pneumonia as COVID-19, and characterized it as a "global public enemy". It can be said that China's efforts against the epidemic is part of the global war against COVID-19. From the point of view of the "war zone" of the epidemic, the overall battle launched by China against the COVID-19 to defend Wuhan and Hubei province is not only the "Patriotic War" on the health and security front, but also the main battlefield of the global war in response to the virus. Only by giving full play to the collective wisdom and experience of mankind can the epidemic be contained and finally overcome.  

Racism is More Dangerous than COVID-19

In the face of this "public health emergency", some foreign social media played up tension, created panic, repeatedly issued "yellow warnings" and concocted the fallacy of "Sick Man of East Asia", leading to the spread of 'hatred for Chinese'." Xenophobia and racism are actually more contagious and dangerous political plagues than COVID-19. In addition, the viral plague has changed into a massive “infodemic”. False conspiracy theories have revived. WHO Director General Dr Tedros has repeatedly called on,“We need facts, not fear. We need science, not rumors. We need solidarity, not stigma.”

"Healthy Silk Road" and "Clean Earth"

Socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, and China is actively promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind and is committed to playing a more and more important role in global governance. At a forum on promoting the construction of "Belt and Road Initiative" in August 2016, President Xi Jinping pointed out the need to work together to build a "healthy Silk Road." The concept of the "healthy Silk Road" is the embodiment of the correct concept of justice and interests advocated by China. It is not only a commitment to the countries along the route, but also to think and do things from the perspective of world public health. This is the thought of Great Harmony in Chinese traditional culture.

Wartime Footing and Fight against the Contagion with Leishenshan Hospital, or Thunder God Mountain Hospital

Since the end of January, China has taken some unprecedented measures to block the seriously affected areas and limit potential routes of transmission in response to the "COVID-19 epidemic." In addition to the central city of Wuhan, the Zhangwan District of Shiyan and Huanggang and Xiaogan in Hubei Province have even entered wartime footing. Front-line doctors integrate traditional Chinese and western medicine and use various drugs for treatment. The strong ability of social organization, production capacity, building capacity and treatment capacity exerted by this round of epidemic is precisely the result of the strong ability of institutional mobilization. This is the political and institutional advantage of socialism with Chinese characteristics.

Valuable Legacy for the Good of All Mankind

The experiences gained from the fight against the epidemic has not only left valuable legacy for China's public health and security, but will also become public goods for the benefit of all mankind.

First of all, we should strengthen the crisis management education for cadres at all levels and establish the ability to predict the potential risks.

Secondly, through national legislation to permanently prohibit the hunting and trading of wild animals, increase the protection and restoration of wild animals and their habitats in an orderly manner in accordance with the law, and build a natural barrier to prevent the spread of viruses across species.

Thirdly, we should promote the science popularization of infectious diseases and change customs and customs so as to enhance the awareness of self-protection.

Fourth, in view of the fact that COVID-19 virus may coexist with people for a long time, it is necessary to further subdivide the pollutants and incinerate them innocuously in the classification of "toxic waste" on the basis of garbage classification.

Fifth, we should promote the establishment of an international early warning system, share data, and closely monitor the mutation and evolution of the virus and its similarities and differences in infectivity to humans and animals.

Sixth, in view of the spread of the epidemic to Japan, South Korea and other neighboring countries, it is necessary to carry out "anti-epidemic" diplomacy and "health diplomacy" in time to promote communication and cooperation at the government level (G to G).

Seventh, to tell the Chinese story well and establish a sense of being in the same boat, we should exchange and learn from each other at the folk level (P to P) and the international level (G to U).

With the Resumption of Work and Production in an Orderly Manner, the Work of Epidemic Prevention and Control Should be Done Continuously
Yang Yiyong

On 17 February, the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council issued the guidance on Scientific Prevention and Control, accurate Policy, Division and Classification, and doing a good job in COVID-19 's epidemic Prevention and Control work (hereinafter referred to as the "opinion"), indicating that the fight against the virus has entered a new stage.

I. To look at the positive changes in the epidemic situation and the positive results achieved in prevention and control work from a practical and realistic point of view.

At present, the positive changes in the epidemic situation in China are mainly reflected in the following four aspects: first, the increase of the epidemic situation is gradually decreasing; second, the means of treatment is more abundant; third, the number of cured people is gradually increasing; and fourth, the mortality rate is declining steadily.

The positive results of epidemic prevention and control in China are mainly reflected in the following five aspects: first, prevention and control work has become the top priority of the current work. Second, the main body of prevention and control actively cooperate. Third, epidemic prevention materials and personnel have a high degree of protection. Fourth, the development of the epidemic has obviously slowed down, and now, on the whole, it has been basically brought under control. Fifth, in extraordinary times, unified orders have achieved initial results in preventing the spread of the epidemic in accordance with the law.

II. It is necessary to coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic situation and the restoration of economic and social order.

How to carry out in-depth epidemic prevention and control on the one hand, and accurately judge the hour and size up the situation on the other hand, and the conditional areas begin to gradually change from abnormal emergency to normal emergency, we must emphasize "scientific prevention and control, precise policy implementation, and regional classification." this is a strategic adjustment after the epidemic prevention and control has entered the medium term. The so-called scientific prevention and treatment should be treated rationally and should not be grasped at once. The so-called accurate strategy is to find the right point of effort, not to sweep a large area. The so-called zoning and grading is to distinguish priorities, not to die as soon as they are in charge, and to make a mess as soon as they are released.

III. To Scientifically divide small management and control units and classify them to restore the order of production and life.

Some provinces are divided into key prevention and control areas, non-key prevention and control areas, and general prevention and control areas. Some counties under their jurisdiction are divided into disease-free areas, sporadic case areas, community outbreak areas, and local epidemic areas. On this basis, the corresponding risk levels are determined according to different categories, and measures are taken in accordance with local conditions. In medical treatment, traffic health and quarantine, personnel inspection and crowd gathering restrictions, emergency materials support, economic operation and other prevention and control measures to be detailed, clear standards, classified measures. For example, at present, the disease control is controlled by the large community, and the place where the disease occurs alone can be precisely controlled by building or unit in the future. Now it is time to take measures in accordance with local conditions, not only to effectively control the epidemic, but also to scientifically resume production!

IV. To dynamic adjustment, timely regional reduction of emergency response level or termination of emergency response.

The so-called dynamic adjustment is to calculate every day, adhere to the principle of seeking truth from facts and data, and those that should be lowered must be lowered in a timely manner. The so-called dynamic adjustment of the list of low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk counties (cities, districts, banners) within their jurisdiction is to implement policies according to categories. At present, for low-risk areas, the first task is to implement the strategy of "external defense input" and restore normal production and life order in an all-round way. At present, for medium-risk areas, the key is to implement the strategy of "external anti-import, internal non-proliferation" and restore normal production and life order as soon as possible. At present, for highly dangerous areas, the strategy of "internal non-proliferation, external anti-export, and strict control" must be adopted to gradually restore the order of production and life according to the epidemic situation.

V. Improving the business environment and changing government functions are always on the way.

Governments and civil servants at all levels must take the initiative to smooth the flow of people and logistics, connect the industrial chain, supply chain, and capital chain, ensure the smooth flow of transportation networks, ensure the supply of protective materials for transportation enterprises and employees, and maintain the order of passenger flow and logistics operation, as far as possible to reduce the impact on the production of enterprises and the lives of the people. Now that there has been the adverse impact of viral natural disasters on enterprises, we do not want to see the adverse effects of bureaucratic man-made disasters on enterprises. On the one hand, we should not forget about agriculture, rural areas and farmers, and we should not miss the farming season and do a good job in spring agricultural production; on the other hand, in order to alleviate the difficulties of enterprises, all localities can periodically reduce and reduce enterprise social security fees and implement the policy of holding over the payment of housing provident fund by enterprises. through multiple measures to stabilize the enterprise economy.

VI. To Learn from the bitter experience, we must learn to respect nature more.

The above-ground and underground markets of wild animals must be banned comprehensively, thoroughly and permanently, and it must be widely publicized that the consumption of wild animals is not only illegal, but also very shameful. From now on, China will implement the strictest Wildlife Protection Law in the world to fundamentally put an end to the transmission of unknown viruses from wild animals to human beings.

VII. Chinese experience creates Chinese Miracle.

China's response to the novel coronavirus epidemic is far more successful than the United States' response to H1N1 bird flu in 2009. Through this people's war, we took the lead in establishing a set of abnormal emergency response mechanism. Practice has proved to be very effective and has been liked by the World Health Organization. At the same time, there is room for further systematization, institutionalization and institutionalization. The fight against novel coronavirus this time is short and effective. China has contributed not only to the improvement of its own governance system, but also to the improvement of the world health governance system, which is worthy of being fully determined.

Advices on the Social Mentality During the Epidemic Period
Yang Yiyong / Fan Xianwei

During the period of epidemic prevention and control, we should not only pay attention to the tangible means such as medical treatment and material security, but also pay full attention to the invisible means of building a positive social mentality, and use "heart" epidemic prevention to build a psychological epidemic prevention "wall".

I. the changing trend of social mentality in China at present.

(1) the change of social mentality shows "four major trends".

First, with the significant improvement in overall national strength, the mentality of the people is becoming more and more confident and calm. Second, under the diversification of information dissemination, the mentality of the public is becoming more and more active. Third, under major emergencies, the mentality of the public is becoming more and more inclusive and rational. Fourth, the social expectation is optimistic and open and pluralistic under the release of the vitality of social self-organization.

(2) the social mentality falls into the "four major dilemmas"

One is the dilemma of social anxiety and psychological pressure caused by the scarcity of public service resources. The second is the plight of over-sensitivity and panic spread caused by the lack of scientific thinking literacy. The third is the plight of social psychological apathy and low trust caused by the lack of integrity and the decline of moral bottom line. The fourth is the plight of the populization of social mentality and the breeding of extreme emotions caused by social differentiation.

II. the current situation of social mentality under COVID-19 's epidemic situation.

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, with the aggravation of the epidemic situation and the upgrading of prevention and control measures, public attention has been further enhanced, social mentality has also undergone greater fluctuations, anxiety, panic and other negative emotions continue to spread and accumulate. To sum up, since the outbreak of the epidemic, people's negative social mentality is mainly manifested in five forms: fluke, panic, anger, onlookers and curiosity.

III. The main reasons for the formation of negative social mentality under COVID-19 's epidemic situation.

Generally speaking, when major emergencies occur, the social mentality is more fragile and sensitive than usual, and people often feel anxious and uneasy, which is a reflection of normal social stress mentality and the inherent inevitable embodiment of biological attributes (Sha Lianxiang et al., 2005). However, since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, the negative mentality of the public has arisen, in addition to the normal social stress reaction, the "four noes" such as the untimely government prevention and control measures, the inaccurate disclosure of information, the inadequate handling of rumors, and the lack of rigorous media reports are the important reasons for aggravating the negative social mentality.

IV. countermeasures and suggestions on cultivating a good social mentality.

In order to strengthen the construction of social psychological service system and cultivate self-esteem, self-confidence, rational peace and positive social mentality, we should focus on the following points:

First, effectively guide people's social expectations and strengthen the construction of social psychological service system.

Second, to strengthen mental health services and create a positive social psychology.

Third is to strengthen the capacity building of public services and enhance people's confidence in development.

Fourth is to further promote the transparency of information dissemination and improve the effectiveness of information disclosure.

Fifth, efforts should be made to improve the ability to handle public opinion and firmly grasp the initiative of public opinion.

The sixth is to strengthen the cultivation of public scientific quality and effectively improve social credit awareness and moral level.

The U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is Undermining Global Efforts to Fight Climate Change
Li Changjiu

The 25th session of the Conference of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change, held in Madrid, Spain, from December 2 to 16, 2019, pledged to step up efforts to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2020, but delayed clear decisions in key areas. Critics accuse the United States of obstructing countries' progress in tackling climate change.

As the official name of the Climate change Conference, COP is the abbreviation of the Conference of the parties and the supreme body of the (UNFCCC) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change. The Paris Agreement, signed by 197 countries, including the United States, at the 21st Conference of the parties to the COP in 2015, is a binding global agreement on the climate crisis. The agreement sets out a global action plan to limit the rise in global average temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to work to keep warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Why do most countries pay great attention to climate change? This is because the climate crisis is threatening human well-being and development. Carbon dioxide is the main long-term greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, which can remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. Sea level rise has accelerated since satellite measurements began in 1993. The heat wave that swept the world in June 2019 caused the sea ice at the earth's poles to melt. In June 2019, the Antarctic sea ice area was 8.5 per cent lower than the 1981-2010 average, the lowest June on record for 41 years; and the average Arctic sea ice cover was 10.5 per cent lower than the 1981-2010 average, the second lowest in June. Petri Tlass, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, is worried that if countries do not take urgent action now, the temperature rise will exceed 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century, and the harmful impact on human well-being will be increasing.

According to a report released by the United Nations Environment Programme in October 2017, countries' current emission reduction commitments can only reach 1/3 of the 2030 temperature control target; even if countries fully implement their current emission reduction commitments, by 2100, global temperatures will also rise by 3 degrees Celsius than before industrialization, far exceeding the 2 degrees Celsius target set out in the Paris Agreement. The situation is even more worrying when the United States withdraws from the Paris Agreement as planned in 2020. The United States is the country with the largest per capita CO2 emissions, so the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement has been criticized and even reprimanded by many parties. According to the Paris Agreement reached at the end of 2015, no Contracting Party may withdraw for the first three years from the date of its entry into force (4 November 2016). The Trump administration officially launched the process of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement from November 4, 2019.

Scientists believe that rising greenhouse gas emissions and record high temperatures are linked to man-made climate change. In particular, the following three factors have a huge and far-reaching impact.

I. overexploitation and consumption of mineral resources.

II. The global forest area is shrinking rapidly.

III, the buried wetlands around the world need to be rescued urgently.

The above factors have led to the continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the deterioration of the ecological environment. In the face of a "state of climate emergency", it is difficult for any country to be left alone. Only by working together to implement the Paris Agreement can we effectively deal with the climate crisis.

I. Relevant United Nations agencies to strengthen coordination and guidance.

II. Developed countries should assume more responsibilities and obligations.

III. The international community should provide financial assistance to developing countries.

IV. China abides by its climate commitment

Phase-one Sino-US Trade Deal Reached, but the Struggle in the Future Remains Intense
Zhou Shijian

After a year and a half, 13 rounds of negotiations made a breakthrough on October 11, 2019, and China and the United States agreed on the text of the agreement on December 13. The text of the agreement includes nine chapters: preamble, intellectual property rights, technology transfer, food and agricultural products, financial services, exchange rate and transparency, trade expansion, bilateral assessment and dispute settlement, and final provisions. At the same time, the two sides agreed that the United States will fulfill its commitment to abolish tariffs on Chinese products in stages and realize the transformation of tariffs from rising to lowering. On January 15, 2020, the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement was signed.

Sino-US economic and trade frictions have reached an agreement in the first stage, but the follow-up struggle is still complex and acute. After the tenth round of negotiations on May 1, 2019, the two sides had serious differences on the English text of the agreement, which once stalled the negotiations. The "structural reform" proposed by the US side, that is, serious differences have occurred over China's market mechanism, especially the reform of state-owned enterprises. This will become a difficult point in the second phase of the agreement negotiations. Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University professor and former head of the IMF's China division, said the agreement did not address the root causes of economic tensions between the United States and China, leaving more substantive issues to be negotiated in the future. President Trump said on Twitter that the second phase of the negotiations is likely to continue after the election. In addition, China and the United States will have a fierce confrontation over the reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva. On January 15, 2019, the United States submitted a report to the WTO calling for the abolition of the developing country status of China and some medium-sized countries (the aim of this move is to press China to significantly reduce import tariffs and abolish import quota protection for major crops such as wheat, rice, corn and cotton). This proposal is supported by almost all Western developed countries, such as the European Union and Japan. In addition, the United States also asked the WTO to review China's market economy status, especially the structural reform of state-owned enterprises.

Lessons from this Sino-US trade war.

(1) in the face of the pressure of a trade war, our loudest slogan is "do your own thing."

This is exactly what we made a mistake in this respect. The skyrocketing pork prices mentioned at the beginning of this article is a typical example.

1. Cause serious economic losses to the country.

2. Make life difficult for hundreds of millions of people in urban and rural areas.

3. It has added difficulties to the Sino-US trade negotiations.

Due to a domestic shortage of pork and soaring pork prices, China has to buy large quantities of American agricultural products. China has promised to buy 40 billion to 50 billion of US agricultural products within one year in the first phase of the agreement, bearing in mind that China bought US $24 billion of US agricultural products in 2017.

(2) the Sino-US trade war and science and technology war have forced China to increase its investment in R & D and innovation.

With the rise of China, the United States has completely stopped the transfer of high and new technology to China since the Obama administration in 2009. In early 2017, Trump strictly banned any technology transfer to China after taking office, and on June 1, 2018, the US government strictly banned high-tech majors in colleges and universities from enrolling Chinese students. "as trade relations become increasingly tense, the United States has imposed strict export restrictions on dozens of Chinese companies on the grounds of threatening national security," Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported on August 2, 2018. "

In other words, while launching a trade war with China, Trump launched a science and technology war against China, explicitly demanding decoupling from China.

The author believes that the key now is to implement it in action. The top priority is to meet the target of R & D investment in 2020 and reach the target of accounting for GDP2.5%. The next step is to achieve 2.8% of R & D investment by 2025.

(3) the Sino-US trade war forces China to further strengthen the strategy of diversifying its export market.

The once-in-a-century financial crisis in 2008 has forced China to increase the implementation of export market diversification strategy.

The Sino-US trade war is pressing. The prospect of Sino-US economic and trade cooperation is not optimistic, and the US crackdown in the economic and trade field will continue unabated in the future. This is enough to make China's export enterprises to the United States clear-headed, do not bet on the American market, it is time to seriously consider the further implementation of the export market diversification strategy.

From 2009 to 2018, the share of emerging market economies in China's exports rose from 51.7% to 57.7%, an increase of 6 percentage points, which happens to be the transfer of 6.1% of China's exports to the United States. Countries and regions along the "Belt and Road Initiative" route accounted for 29.3 percent of China's foreign trade, an increase of 4.3 percent over 2013. With the preliminary agreement reached by the East Asian Economic Cooperation Zone ((RCEP)), the 15 East Asian countries (including India) will be the market for China to expand its exports.

Achievements and Regrets during the 20-year Rule of Vladimir Putin
Yu Sui

Putin took over power from Yeltsin on December 31, 1999 as prime minister and acting president. He was elected president in March 2000 and has been in power in Russia for 20 years. At first, the constitution stipulated that the president would serve a four-year term and not be allowed to serve three consecutive terms, so he became prime minister from 2008 to 2012. During this period, his leading role in Russian society is still self-evident. Subsequently, in 2012 and 2018, he was re-elected and re-elected as President, with a term of six years and a statutory term of office until 2024. At present, Russia is considering amending the constitution to abolish the presidential term limit, and a referendum will be held on April 22, which means that Putin will be re-elected as president.

As early as when Putin came to power, the author put forward a point of view on the track of Russia's development, that is, breaking-chaos-governance-prosperity (see "International issues Research", No. 4, 2000, "the trend of Russia's domestic and Foreign policies in the New period"). Yeltsin broke the Soviet Union and brought chaos, and Putin was faced with the mission of governing and revitalizing the country. The fact that Putin has been in power for 20 years has proved that he has successfully solved the problem of chaos, effectively governed the country, and has enjoyed some prosperity in governance, but the goal of revitalizing the country has not yet been achieved. It is impressive that this outstanding politician has a tenacious spirit that the country will never rest until the country is prosperous.

I. the situation in Russia at the beginning of Putin's coming to power.

At the beginning of Putin's coming to power, Russia was trapped at home and abroad. As a result, Putin concluded that Russia is in the most difficult historical period in hundreds of years and is really in danger of becoming a second-rate or third-rate country in the world.

Compared with the above, the face of Russia today is completely different.

II. Putin's initial promises and ideas after taking office.

The essence of Putin's principles and policies is to take national interests as the core, strengthen the country and enrich the people as the mission, take economic development as the premise, unite the whole society as the means, take the national spirit as the driving force, rely on strong political power, and learn from historical lessons. to choose a path suited to one's own national conditions as the direction, to create a good external environment as the condition, and to revitalize the status of a great power as the goal.

Putin's practice over the next 20 years shows that he has achieved the consistency between words and deeds.

The main achievements and shortcomings of Putin in the past 20 years.

Over the past 20 years since he took office, Putin has devoted himself to reviving Russia's great power status and world influence, strengthening the power of the federal government at home, rectifying the economic order, and strengthening the building of the armed forces; he has made foreign efforts to improve the international environment, expand diplomatic space, safeguard national interests, and restore his status as a world power on the international stage.

Over the past 20 years, Putin has always maintained a very high social support rate in order to revitalize Russia, never forgetting his original intention and doing his best. Opposition political parties, including the Communist Party of Russia, have adopted a cooperative approach to his various measures, and when there is disagreement, they will abstain from voting in the parliament.

In view of the above, the following brief concluding observations can be drawn:

First, Putin has always won the support of the overwhelming majority of the Russian people over the past 20 years in office, which shows that his approach is in line with national conditions, wins the hearts and minds of the people, and adapts to the world trend. Russia's national conditions are relatively special, and it will be a long process to explore a development path suitable for Russia. Putin has initially achieved his goal and will continue to fulfill his historical mission.

Second, the strong Russia created by Putin is increasingly influential in the world, becoming a major stable factor for world peace and development, and promoting the positive trend of the multipolar development of the world pattern.

Third, some people ignore the whole picture of Russia and only talk about economic shortcomings, thus negating Putin's achievements and the promotion of Russia's status as a great power, and even sing the pessimistic view that "Russia will stagnate for a long time." If this is not prejudice, at least it is not serious.

The Reinterpretation of the Battle between China and the US Based on the Perspective of the Changes to the Methods of Global Governance
Zhao Yuanliang

The great powers manage the world and dominate the world pattern, and their means are various, either ruling or governing in the form of expression. In international politics under anarchy, national actors are playing games with other countries in order to seek power, maintain and expand their own interests. therefore, international politics is always in a state of endless game aimed at fighting for power and interests. In the world political game, the purpose of what means (whether ruling means or governance means) adopted by international political actors is to seek the interests of their own survival and development. The changes of the means of the great powers to govern the world also determine the evolution of the game types of various countries.

The change of governance means makes the game between great powers (especially nuclear powers) break away from the old state of life-and-death game in the way of war and colonization, and the new governance means bring the game between China and the United States into the Locke game. Specifically, the trade dispute launched by the United States against China has both technical and strategic characteristics.

From the tactical point of view of the game, the measures taken by the United States against China are roughly as follows: first, the United States uses domestic law to implement "long-arm jurisdiction" through the domestic "rule of law" of the United States. The second is to implement strict high-tech export controls on China to curb the development of China's high-tech industry, the third is to make use of the exchange rate issue to threaten to classify China as an exchange rate manipulator, the fourth is to use the relevant mechanisms of the WTO to launch anti-dumping, countervailing and special safeguard measures against China, and at the same time to compel the WTO to revise regulations to meet the interests of the United States. Fifth, the United States uses the issue of "non-market economy status" to contain China. The sixth is to use its ideological values to interfere with China's internal affairs and affect the process of China's development. Generally speaking, the purpose and essence of the United States provoking trade friction between the United States and China is to continue to consolidate the hegemonic position of the United States, reformulate world economic rules, and curb China's rapid development.

What kind of trade policy theory to adopt is actually strategic. As the German economist Liszt believes, the choice of foreign trade policy of various countries should comprehensively consider its impact on national economic development. The choice of trade policy should be based on the various conditions that the country had at that time and the level of economic development achieved. The Trump administration's strategic trade policy emphasizes that the government should intervene in trade, promote the development of domestic enterprises and industries, and restructure American manufacturing, which is essentially a foreign trade policy aimed at promoting the development of strategic industries in the United States. From the perspective of strategic thinking, the Sino-US trade game actually transcends the trade friction itself, and is a major game in many aspects, such as industrial policy, investment standards, technological innovation and national industrial development strategy.

However, compared with the fierce conflict between China and the United States before the establishment of diplomatic relations, in the process of the trade game between the two countries, the United States adopted more Locke-style game methods than Hobbes means of violent nature. the key reason is that China and the United States are both nuclear powers, and the game between them needs to follow the bottom line principle of "survival and allowing survival". Although Sino-US trade friction and game have the dual characteristics of tactical and strategic, the two games are under the framework of Locke game. In the 21st century, when both sides of the game have the ability to destroy nuclear weapons, it is difficult for the great powers to seize interests through the Hobbes game. because this will make their own costs (such as military costs) do not match the gains. The mainstream option of the great power game is to adopt the Locke game to compete and cooperate and to seek limited controllable interests.

The Islam Factor in Iranian Foreign Policy in Post-Khomeini Era - from the Term of Rafsanjani to the Term of Ahmadinejad
Liu Zhongmin

Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979 had two very prominent goals, namely, the establishment of the Islamic Republic at home, the comprehensive implementation of Islamization, and the establishment of Islamic order through "export revolution" to the outside world. "the Islamic output of the revolution stems from Ayatollah Khomeini's ideological worldview, an interpretation of Islam. It is characterized by combining an Iranian nationalism rooted in religious brands with the transnational character of Islam and the global mission of Muslims through missionary, exemplary and armed revolution. Encouraging and spreading Islam is a basic foreign policy objective, which is reflected in the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran and in the idea of encouraging people to 'perpetuate the revolution at home and abroad'. " During the ten years when Khomeini served as Iran's supreme religious leader, the diplomatic concept of Islamism and the diplomatic practice of exporting revolution constitute the fundamental characteristics of Iranian diplomacy.

Since Iran entered the post-Khomeini era, the influence of Islamic factors on Iranian diplomacy has shown a significant decline as a whole. However, based on the attribute of the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, especially the need to consolidate the legitimacy of its regime, although the post-Khomeini era of Iranian diplomacy shows the relative weakening of ideological diplomacy of "exporting revolution" and the increasing consideration of national interests, it can not fundamentally get rid of the constraints of Khomeini's "exporting revolutionary" diplomatic heritage. Therefore, whether in the relatively moderate period of Rafsanjani and Khatami, or in the period when Iranian diplomacy was once again moving towards a tough and radical Ahmadinejad, Iranian diplomacy has not given up the diplomatic principle of "exporting revolution" and the long-term goal of establishing an "Islamic world order." Continued support for Islamic militant groups is still the main way in which Islam influences Iran's diplomacy. In the post-Khomeini era, profound changes have taken place in the international pattern and the Middle East pattern. In response to international and regional changes such as the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the end of the Cold War, the Gulf War, the Iraq War, and the "Arab Spring", Iran has also actively used Islam to exert influence on regional affairs and hot issues such as the Middle East and Central Asia. In addition, Islamic factors have also had an important impact on Iran's relations with the West, especially the United States.

I. Geopolitical expansion by making use of Islamic factors.

The use of Islamic factors for geopolitical expansion is an important way of Iranian diplomacy in the post-Khomeini era. This paper mainly focuses on three issues: supporting regional Islamist organizations, using Islamic factors to expand strategic space in Central Asia, and using Shiite factors to influence Iraq's post-war reconstruction.

II. Make use of Islamic factors to deal with the "Arab Spring"
Generally speaking, Iran has given active support and solidarity to the opposition in Tunisia, Egypt and other countries, while to Syria, as an Iranian ally, Iran fully supports the regime of Bashar al-Assad and opposes the subversion of the Syrian regime by Western and regional countries. In essence, Iran's policy differences are mainly due to the consideration of Iran's national interests, but Islamic factors also constitute an important factor affecting Iran's different policy orientations.

III. Use Islamic factors to counterbalance the West.
First, in the post-Khomeini era, in order to maintain the legitimacy of the domestic regime and prevent the infiltration of Western ideology, Iran's foreign policy has been making extensive use of the Islamic discourse system. It emphasizes the legitimacy and superiority of Iran's political system and ideology, and is vigilant against the cultural erosion and ideological infiltration of the West.
Second, on the issue of counter-terrorism, Iran actively uses Islam to explain the legitimacy and legitimacy of Iran's policy propositions, and strives to grasp the moral commanding heights in the game with the West.
Third, on the nuclear issue, Iran constantly expresses its position that it will never develop nuclear weapons from a religious and moral point of view, and seeks the spiritual motivation to counterbalance the West from Islam.

IV. Conclusion.
Generally speaking, Iran in the post-Khomeini era presents the political pendulum effect of two forces of reform and conservatism, and the two lines rise alternately, which makes the Islamic revolutionary diplomacy relatively watered down when the reformers are in power, and relatively strengthened when the conservatives are in power. Since Khomeini's death in 1989, Iran's domestic and foreign policies have been swaying and reincarnating between reform and conservatism, which will certainly play an important role in restricting Iran's development path in the future. During the presidents of Rafsanjani (1989-1997) and Khatami (1997-2005), the reformers dominated Iran, and the Islamist factor in Iranian diplomacy decreased significantly; during the reign of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013), conservatives took over the Iranian regime, Iran's internal and foreign affairs tended to be conservative, and the factor of revolutionary diplomacy increased. Since 2013, moderate conservative Rouhani has started reform again, but it remains to be seen whether Iran can get out of the historical cycle of reform and conservative forces, and the impact of Islamism on Iranian diplomacy remains to be further studied.

 
The Ecological Protection and High-quality Development of the Yellow River Basin from the Perspective of Collaborative Governance——Experience and Enlightenment of European Rhine River Basin Governance
Huang Yanfen / Zhang Zhikai

As the mother river of nurturing the Chinese nation and creating Chinese civilization, the Yellow River is not only an important ecological barrier in China, but also an important area to achieve high-quality development. In September 2019, general secretary Xi Jinping clearly proposed that the ecological protection and high quality development of the the Yellow River river basin should be upgraded to a national strategy, and pointed out that "the Yellow River should focus on protection and governance", and at the same time, "cooperate to promote big governance". (Xi Jinping, 2019). It can be seen that the coordinated promotion of large-scale governance is the key to achieve the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, is also an important driver to realize the modernization of the Yellow River basin governance system and governance capacity, and is also an important guarantee to realize the Anlan of the Yellow River Basin. So, what is basin coordinated management? Why is coordinated management the key to harnessing the Yellow River? How to achieve ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin through coordinated management? No matter the relevant documents and reports of the government or the relevant academic research literature, there is no systematic answer and explanation to these questions. Based on the experience of Rhine River governance in Europe, this paper hopes to answer these questions systematically and explain them rationally in order to provide reference for related research and policy-making.

To promote the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and realize the great governance and good governance of the Yellow River Basin, the key is to promote the great governance in coordination, that is, to deal with the coordination between the vertical inter governmental, horizontal inter governmental, governmental and non-governmental, development and protection, which is determined by the contradiction between the inherent characteristics of river basin governance and the governance model of the Yellow River Basin The contradiction between the integrity and systematization of regional governance and the existing management system of the Yellow River Basin, the complexity and diversity of river basin governance and the government's single center governance mode, and the contradiction between the public products and externalities of river basin governance and the wrong cost and benefit of governance. The experience of Rhine River Management provides a good inspiration for solving these contradictions, realizing the coordinated management of river basins, realizing the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. That is to say, measures and measures should be taken to build the mechanism of inter governmental cooperation within the Yellow River Basin, improve the mechanism of social coordinated management of the Yellow River Basin, accelerate the formulation of overall strategic planning and enhance the coordination of protection and development, We will form a pattern of coordinated governance of multiple subjects, build a community of river basin governance, compose a concerto of coordinated governance of the Yellow River Basin, play a chorus of the Yellow River in the new era, modernize the governance system and capacity of the Yellow River Basin, and realize ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.

Is the Landslide Reelection of Tsai Ing-wen a Blessing or a Curse for Taiwan?
Wang Jianmin

In Taiwan's general election in early 2020, what seemed to be a close blue-green showdown resulted in a landslide victory of 8.17 million votes for Tsai Ing-wen, while the DPP won more than half of the seats in the legislature. However, is it a blessing or a curse for Taiwan that Tsai Ing-wen has won a great victory and the DPP is in power again? Is it good or bad? But it is an important issue worthy of in-depth consideration. It is certain that Tsai won the election and created the glory of his personal political career, but she lost to Taiwan and could not bring a bright future to Taiwan. It will plunge Taiwan into more intense internal friction and internal infighting, make Taiwan fall into more serious political confrontation and social ripping, continue to let "Taiwan independence" distort democracy, cast a new shadow on Taiwan's economic development, and bring greater risks to cross-strait relations.

"Sovereignty Fanaticism" Masks Democracy and Justice

Outsiders may pay more attention to the direct harm of Tsai Ing-wen's re-election to Taiwan's economy and the peaceful development of cross-strait relations, but ignore the indirect harm to Taiwan's democratic politics and democratic values. Before the election, Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party broke out a series of major political scandals, at least five major events. In an ordinary democratic society, under normal circumstances, any major scandal or incident will deal a fatal blow to the election situation of Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party, especially the fake doctorate case of Tsai Ing-wen. However, both the fake doctorate case and other major controversial cases had no impact on Tsai Ing-wen and the election situation of the Democratic Progressive Party, and even won big victories. It turns out that in Taiwan, elections are no longer about selecting a leader with virtue, talents, and honesty, but about selecting a leader whether from the blue camp or green camp, whether supporting reunification or independence. The election is a blue-green showdown representing different political ideologies and a showdown between reunification and independence. In this way, just and fair democratic elections have been completely subverted in Taiwan, meanwhile, blue-green camp and stand of reunification and independence have gone beyond the value choice of democracy and justice.

Further Strengthen Tsai Ing-wen's "Democratic Autocracy"

Taiwan claims to be a beacon of Chinese social democracy, and the West, represented by the United States, speaks highly of Taiwan's democracy. However, after having a real understanding of Taiwan's democracy and what Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen has done, one will realize how hypocritical Taiwan's democracy is and how little Tsai's democratic attainment is. One will realize what Tsai Ing-wen is fighting for is actually against democracy, that Tsai Ing-wen is becoming a specialist in the cloak of democracy and a new dictator under democracy. Tsai's victory and re-election will only make Tsai more autocratic and abusive, and democracy will be trampled on.

Greater Political Confrontation and Social Rift

Various signs show that a "green terror" has gradually emerged in Taiwan, the ghost of McCarthyism has gradually made a comeback in Taiwan, and Taiwan will enter another "political dark period." Although the Tsai authorities' political liquidation and "green terror" actions will win the applause of the Green Camp and the support of the "Taiwan independence" forces, they are creating greater political confrontation, further deepening social cracks, and creating greater social unrest, while it is also creating opponents and enemies, so that Taiwan society will never move towards harmony and well-being. As Taiwan scholars said in an article a few days ago, "there is no honor for the winners and no peace for the losers in this election."

Bring New Risks to Taiwan's Economy

The unexpected performance of Taiwan's economy in 2019 was not the result of Tsai Ing-wen's administration’s efforts, but the result of the transfer of order due to the Sino-US economic and trade confrontation and the return of Taiwan businessmen. At the same time, it also shows the strong competitiveness of Taiwan's electronics and semiconductor industry, which rose in the 1980s. Taiwan is a typical export-oriented economy, especially it is highly dependent on the mainland market. Once the mainland adopts economic sanctions against the Tsai authorities' risky actions of "Taiwan independence," it will not be what Taiwan's economy can bear. Therefore, Tsai Ing-wen's re-election and being in power have brought great uncertainty and potential risks to Taiwan's economy. The last issue of Taiwan's "World" magazine published a special survey last year, which drew an important conclusion, "although Taiwan is becoming more and more democratic, open, and pluralistic, it is also becoming more and more stagnant, flinching, and melancholy."

A Significant Increase in Risk in the Taiwan Strait

After Tsai Ing-wen is re-elected, there will be no pressure for re-election in the future. She may go further and further on the separatist road of "Taiwan independence" and will engage in all kinds of separatist actions of "Taiwan independence." Naturally, the mainland will not tolerate and sit idly by. It will step up efforts to "oppose independence" and "curb independence", so that "Taiwan independence" and "anti-independence" will constitute the main line for the development of cross-strait relations in the future, which indicates that cross-strait relations will be more confrontational and more competitive in the future. The situation in the Taiwan Strait has intensified, and the political risk in the Taiwan Strait has increased significantly. Once the Tsai authorities cross the political red line, the argument originally predicted by scholars that "Tsai Ing-wen's victory in the election is more beneficial to reunification" may come true. Therefore, there is no need for a clear and specific timetable for cross-strait reunification, and the greatest possibility of cross-strait reunification in the future is the occasional non-peaceful reunification caused by the risky action of "Taiwan independence." However, this possible outcome cannot be expected by the Tsai authorities and the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces on the island.

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