The international strategic circle has been showing a great interest in China's national strength and its future development path. Considering the successful exploration of the road of socialism in China and achievements China have made in the world, it’s time to put an end to the "China collapse" theory and "China threat" theory used by the Western to attack China. Recently, Xulio Ríos, an expert on Chinese matters in Spain, wrote an article, “China's three abilities are worthy of attention.” One of the abilities mentioned in the article is China's ability to firmly follow its own path of development and modernization. 

The closer China come to the center of the world political arena, the more challenges China will be facing in national security. Recently, anti-China forces have vainly attempted to interfere in China's Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Xinjiang affairs, provided funds and materials, theoretical instigation, and organized training for violent criminals who advocate "Hong Kong independence", "Taiwan independence," and "East Turkistan independence," and signed the so-called bill for it. 

Since the founding of New China, China has resolutely safeguarded and maintained national political security under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, which is the fundamental reason that the Chinese nation has achieved great development by leaps and bounds from national independence and self-reliance to the prosperity of the country. Political security, as the foundation of national security, the fundamental need of a country, and the basic condition for the survival and development of all countries, is not only vital to the safety and survival of China and the Communist Party, but also closely related to the long-term stability of China, the national rejuvenation and the well-being of Chinese people. It can’t be denied that the Color Revolutions are posing a real threat to the political security of China. 

In order to protect national security, we must first seek political security, build an iron wall to safeguard national political security, resolutely prevent and severely crack down on the infiltration, sabotage, subversion, and separatist activities of hostile forces, and strengthen the construction of ideological positions. China will eradicate the soil that affects national political security and constantly deepen anti-terrorism, anti-secession and anti-extremist activities. In a word, the maintenance of political security is the starting point for planning and even promoting national security work in various fields. 

The People's Republic of China and the Republic of India established diplomatic relations on April 1, 1950, shortly after the founding of New China. China and India will commemorate the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2020 with 70 celebratory activities, which will inject continuous positive energy into the further development of bilateral relations and international cooperation.

Over the past 70 years, Sino-Indian relations have experienced ups and downs. Although there were a period of time in the last century when the bilateral relations faced twists and turns due to border disputes, China and India have generally maintained a good relation with each other. It is worth mentioning that the two governments have played a positive guiding role in dealing with some difficulties and setbacks with essential attitudes and policies. It can be expected that Sino-Indian relations will continue to be on the right track in the future.

The Main Stages of Sino-Indian Relations

Reviewing the course of 70 years of Sino-Indian diplomatic relations, it can be roughly divided into the following stages: 

The first stage is the honeymoon of the bilateral relationship. It specifically refers to the period from the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1950 to 1960. The landmark events are the signing of the Agreement on Trade and Intercourse between the Tibet Region of China and India in 1954, the exchange of visits between Premier Zhou Enlai and Prime Minister Jawaharial Nehru, and the interaction between Chairman Mao Zedong and Prime Minister Nehru.

The second stage has seen the intensified conflicts between China and India. It refers to the period from 1960 to 1980, which was marked by a border war in 1962 and an era of cold war lasted nearly 20 years. 

The third stage, the slow period of warming relations, specifically from 1980 to 2000, was marked by Rajiv Gandhi's visit to China and Chinese President Jiang Zemin's visit to India. 

The fourth stage, the development period of rational return, specifically refers to about 20 years since the beginning of the new century. Its landmark events include the signing of the "political guiding principles on resolving the Border issue between China and India", the frequent exchange of visits between Chinese and Indian leaders, and the informal meeting between Xi Jinping and Modi in Wuhan, China. 

The main reasons for the twists and turns in Sino-Indian relations. 

Reviewing the course of the development of Sino-Indian relations over the past 70 years, we can find that although the relations between the two countries have shown an upward trend on the whole, we can indeed see the ups and downs. The reasons are as follows: 

I. Border disputes are the root cause of the deterioration of relations. 

In June 2017, the crisis that took place in Donglang was also based on sovereign rights and interests over the border issue. The armed forces of the two sides confronted each other on a large scale, and the war was on the verge of breaking out, with unpredictable and vicious results. 

Second, the Tibet issue is a sensitive factor in the cooling of relations. 

In recent years, some changes have taken place in the Indian government's attitude towards the Tibet issue, that is, India recognizes that Tibet is a part of China and does not allow exiled Tibetans to engage in anti-China political activities in India. However, many Indian politicians still take advantage of the Dalai Lama's status as religious leader and "Nobel Peace Prize winner" to interact with him frequently and exert political pressure on China. This is precisely the important content of frequent negotiations with India in the diplomatic practice between China and India. 

Third, the concept of security is the deep cause of tension in the relationship. 

In recent years, with the substantial increase in overall national strength, China has shown a previous trend in the Indian Ocean, investing heavily in "Belt and Road Initiative", especially its flagship project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. all this has been misinterpreted by India as a deliberate strategic threat from China. Coupled with the frequent frictions on the Sino-Indian border, the Indian army once again prevails the hustle and bustle of the China threat theory, which is also one of the deep backgrounds of the Donglang confrontation. 

Fourth, "third party" is the external factor of relationship entanglement. 

In the contemporary pattern of international relations, in addition to bilateral interests, the complex relationship between great powers is also restricted by other major actors in international relations, that is, the triangular relationship. In the Sino-Indian relations, the most influential ones are the triangular relations between China, India and Pakistan and the relations between China, India and the United States. 

The Prospect of the Development of Sino-Indian Relations. 

China and India are linked by mountains and rivers and are both emerging developing countries, so it is in the common interests of the two countries to promote world multipolarization and economic globalization. The world today is experiencing unprecedented changes in a century. It can be predicted that China and India, which have a history of 70 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations, will make efforts to improve bilateral relations and vigorously strengthen international cooperation in the years to come. 

I. the internal driving force of good-neighborly diplomacy. 

China and India are close neighbors linked by mountains and rivers, and the border between the two countries is about 1700 kilometers. Although such a long border has not been formally demarcated and there are great disputes between the two sides, it has been an established policy for China to carry out good-neighborly diplomacy since China's reform and opening up. 

II. Important considerations for economic development. 

Modi won the general election in May 2019 and won a second chance to be in power. Shortly after forming the cabinet, he said that India would strive to achieve the goal of 5 trillion economy. This goal requires that India must make great efforts to improve its infrastructure and strive to attract foreign investment, and China does have a considerable advantage in this regard. Therefore, there is great potential for economic and trade cooperation between China and India, and there is a strong internal demand for strengthening economic relations. 

III. Synergism of international cooperation. 

China and India, both developing countries, face basically the same difficulties and problems in dealing with world economic, political, security and environmental pressures. China and India are both emerging economies and big countries that are expanding their influence, and the cooperation between them is of strategic significance and worldwide impact.

Since the founding of the people's Republic of China 70 years ago, great changes have taken place in the connotation of China's interests in the Middle East. Before the reform and opening up, China opposed imperialism, colonialism, Zionism and later Soviet social imperialism in the Middle East, supported the just cause of the Palestinian people, supported the national liberation movement in the Middle East, and expanded the diplomatic recognition of the people's Republic of China. Since reform and opening up, as the focus of national work has shifted to "taking economic construction as the center", profound changes have taken place in China's relations with countries in the Middle East. China's interests in the Middle East have expanded from safeguarding national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity to multiple interests such as energy, investment, trade, and the security of expatriates; the scope of China's consular protection in the Middle East has expanded from government agencies and civil servants stationed abroad to the government, enterprises and the broad masses of expatriates. 

I. the Security threat in the Middle East and the Development of the concept of Chinese Consular Protection in the Middle East. 

During the historical period of 30 years after the founding of the people's Republic of China, the term "consular protection" is relatively rare in foreign affairs discourse in the Middle East and other parts of the world, mainly because China's personnel exchanges in the Middle East are relatively limited. Since the 1990s, China has implemented the strategy of "two kinds of resources, two markets" and promoted enterprises to "go global". Especially in the 21st century, the cooperation in trade, investment, aid and labor contracting between China and the Middle East has been increased. the issue of personnel security is highlighted, consular protection is urgent and important, and the concept of consular protection in the Middle East also presents new characteristics. This is mainly based on the following new situations: (1) the surge in the number of Chinese and overseas Chinese in the Middle East (2) the rapid growth of the interests of Chinese enterprises in the Middle East (3) the diversification of consular protection tasks in the Middle East. 

II. Practical Exploration of Chinese Consular Protection in the Middle East. 

The evolution of the concept of Chinese consular protection in the Middle East determines the direction of its practice. Since the reform and opening up, China has rich practice and various forms of consular protection in the Middle East. it mainly has the following six characteristics: the continuous improvement of internal overall planning, the increasing improvement of the consular protection system, the gradual enhancement of the ability to evacuate overseas Chinese, the more diversified ways of consular protection, the increasingly intelligent means of communication, and the "combination of consular protection" tends to mature. 

III. The Prospect of the Institutional Construction of China's Consular Protection in the Middle East. 

Looking to the future, institutional construction is the key link of China's consular protection in the Middle East and a symbol of the maturity of Chinese consular protection. China's institutional construction of consular protection in the Middle East is inseparable from the diplomatic concept with Chinese characteristics and the practice of Chinese consular protection in the Middle East. China's consular protection in the Middle East mainly gives full play to the leading advantages of the government and promotes internal and external overall planning, the linkage between government and enterprises, and cooperation between the upper and lower levels. In the consular protection dominated by sovereign states, emergency management can be divided into four stages: prevention period, preparation period, response period and recovery period. Looking to the future, China's consular protection in the Middle East is mainly composed of four parts: normalization mechanism, crisis management mechanism, logistics support mechanism and aftercare mechanism. 

Conclusion

Looking to the future, China still needs to continue to build an overseas Chinese security system composed of six pillars: "legal support, mechanism building, risk assessment, security early warning, prevention and publicity and emergency response", and speed up the legislative process of consular protection. strive for the formal promulgation of the regulations of the people's Republic of China on Consular Protection and Assistance at an early date, and reasonably define the rights and responsibilities of the government and citizens. Continue to strengthen the "five-in-one" consular protection system of the central, local, embassies and consulates, enterprises and citizens; continue to closely follow overseas security developments, improve the risk assessment and early warning issuance mechanism, and issue overseas security reminders in a timely manner; with technological innovation as the drive, promote the "Internet + consular service" and improve the consular service system; Improve the overall quality of diplomatic personnel as well as the legal awareness and prevention awareness of overseas citizens. 

The complex international conflicts and public security events in the Middle East not only provide a rich case base and database for the construction of consular protection system and mechanism with Chinese characteristics, but also enrich the connotation of diplomatic theory with Chinese characteristics. In the practice of dealing with specific consular protection, sometimes the Ministry of Foreign Affairs seems too small to deal with, and sometimes the Ministry of Foreign Affairs seems too large to operate, so it is necessary to strengthen internal and external coordination and departmental coordination in the process of consular protection. In the new era, Chinese citizens follow "Belt and Road Initiative" into the Middle East, get in close contact with the people of all countries in the Middle East, and become practitioners and builders of a community with a shared future for mankind. Therefore, ensuring the safety of Chinese and overseas Chinese in the Middle East can not only safeguard the vital interests of Chinese citizens, but also an important measure of "diplomacy for the people", winning the hearts and minds of compatriots in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and overseas Chinese, and building a community with a shared future for mankind. We have reason to believe that China's consular protection work will continue to achieve institutional innovation in practice, escorting overseas Chinese and enterprises in the Middle East, and providing a valuable "China plan" for other foreign countries to explore consular protection mechanisms in the Middle East.

Over the past period of time, Sino-US consultations have been full of twists and turns, the external environment has become more severe, and the slowdown in global economic growth has become a foregone conclusion. Although China's economy continues to be generally stable and steadily making progress, the problem of structural imbalance is highlighted, the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, and economic development is facing severe risks and challenges. In the face of the increasingly complex situation at home and abroad, in August 2019, China issued a number of reform measures to deepen the market-oriented reform, such as reforming the (LPR) pricing mechanism of the quoted interest rate in the loan market, revising the Land Management Law, passing the Resource tax Law, and so on. It can be found that a main line running through these reforms is to make the market better allocate factors of production such as capital, land and resources by making use of price, which is the "bull's nose" of allocating resources in the market economy. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, although price reform has made remarkable achievements, more than 97% of commodities and services have achieved market-oriented pricing, and the socialist market price system has been basically established and gradually improved (Wang Yongzhi, 2019). However, the prices of factors such as land and capital are still widely distorted and have a "two-track system", and the mechanism for the market to determine the formation of factor prices has not yet been fully established (Guo Zhi, 2019). Therefore, these reform measures are of great significance to promote the market-oriented reform of factor prices, eliminate the price mechanism obstacles that restrict the free flow of factors, and have a great impact on the economic and social development of our country. Therefore, from the perspective of the formation mechanism of factor price marketization, this paper analyzes and interprets the reform of (LPR) pricing mechanism of quoted interest rate in loan market, the revision of "Land Management Law" and the promulgation of "Resource tax Law", in order to provide ideas for our country to further deepen the reform. 

I. Reform of (LPR) pricing Mechanism of quoted interest rate in loan Market: a key step in the marketization of loan interest rate in China. 

1. The main contents of the Reform of the pricing Mechanism of quotation interest rate in the loan Market. 

(1) the quotation method of LPR is formed by changing the reference loan benchmark interest rate to the open market operating rate plus points. (2) the scope of quotation lines is expanded and the representativeness of LPR is enhanced. (3) the quotation frequency is changed from daily quotation to monthly quotation, and the quotation bank will quote to the National Interbank loan Center before 9: 00 on the 20th of each month (in case of holiday extension). 

(2). The influence of the pricing Mechanism of quotation interest rate in the New loan Market. 

(1) promote the "integration of two tracks into one" of interest rates and deepen the market-oriented reform of interest rates. (2) dredge the channel of interest rate transmission and improve the efficiency of interest rate transmission. (3) to promote the decline of real loan interest rates and reduce the financing cost of the real economy. 

III. The newly revised Land Management Law provides legal protection for breaking the dual structure of urban and rural land prices. 

1. It removes legal obstacles for the direct entry of collective construction land into the market, and realizes "the same right and the same price" for urban and rural construction land. 

2. Carry out the reform of the compensation system for land expropriation, and the standard of compensation for land expropriation can better reflect the market value of land. 

III. Resource tax Law: tax legislation forces the establishment of a sound price mechanism for green development. 

1. Based on ad valorem, it is convenient for resource prices to better reflect market supply and demand. 

2. Set flexible tax arrangements to make resource prices better reflect the degree of scarcity of resources. 

3. Clearly oriented tax incentives make the price of resources better highlight the ecological value and environmental cost of resources. 

Since the reform and opening up, compared with the fact that the product market has basically been determined by the relationship between supply and demand, the market-oriented reform of factors in our country is far from complete, and there is a long way to go. On the surface of the above analysis, whether it is the reform of the pricing mechanism of the quoted interest rate in the loan market, the revision of the Land Management Law, or the promulgation of the Resource tax Law, it is helpful to improve the formation mechanism of the marketization of factor prices in our country, speed up the construction of relevant systems, and strengthen the supply of effective systems. In the face of the complex situation at home and abroad, we should do a good job in our own affairs, continue to deepen reform, promote the market-oriented reform of factors of production, improve the quality of market allocation of factors of production, promote the orderly flow of factors of production, improve the formation mechanism of the marketization of prices of factors of production, scientifically use price leverage, allocate key factors to the areas with the highest marginal returns, constantly improve total factor productivity, and further release economic potential. We will improve economic vitality and economic resilience, so as to lay an important foundation for China's high-quality economic development and the improvement of the modern economic system.

The eleventh meeting of BRICS leaders in Brazil means that the BRICS cooperation has entered its second "Golden decade". President Xi Jinping's speech at the meeting used the popular and philosophical phrase "all benefits all" to interpret the mission of the BRICS countries to participate in global governance and build a community with a shared future for mankind. This speech runs through three major elements: in line with the trend of world development, enhancing the exemplary role of the BRICS countries, and implementing the purposes of the Charter of the United Nations. 

From President Xi Jinping's speech, we can see several key words for implementing global governance and building a community with a shared future for mankind: first, to create a peaceful and stable security environment, which is the foundation. Only governance can be stable, and only stability can form a community with a shared future. Second, to seek the development prospect of opening up and innovation, which is the essence. The theme of this meeting is around innovation economy and scientific and technological cooperation, especially promoting the building of the BRICS new industrial revolution partnership, highlighting BRICS cooperation in trade and investment, digital economy, connectivity and other fields. Third, it is a way to promote people-to-people exchanges of mutual learning and mutual learning. Like the "Shanghai spirit" advocated by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it respects diverse civilizations and seeks common development.

President Trump announced massive tax cuts for businesses and individuals in early 2018, benefiting the rich and the middle class, plus he made good on his promises to deregulate Wall Street financial institutions. These two major measures have effectively promoted business investment and personal consumption. The growth of GDP began to accelerate in the second quarter, and the US economy showed a strong recovery. The US economy grew at its fastest pace in 12 years since the subprime mortgage crisis occurred in 2007. So President Trump boasted that he was "the greatest president in American history" at the United Nations General Assembly in the fall of 2018, which was widely ridiculed by world public opinion. 

The US economy has been on a downward track since the second quarter of 2019. 

The stimulus effect of Trump's massive ($1.5 trillion) tax cuts lasted only until the first quarter of 2019. The Federal Reserve, the National Institute of Business Economics and the world's major international economic institutions all predict that the US economy will be on a downward trajectory this year and next. In addition, other relevant economic and financial data are not optimistic. Some data even show pessimism about the outlook for the US economy. 

The rapid growth of fiscal deficit and the heavy burden of national debt have put great pressure on economic development. 

The policy of reducing taxes has always been split in two. First, it has stimulated economic growth; second, it has reduced the government's fiscal revenue. Most of the revenue of the American government depends on taxes. After Trump entered the White House, he was eager for quick success and quick profit, and made a great deal of deficit finance, which led to a sharp increase in the government's fiscal deficit. At the same time, there has been a sharp increase in US Treasuries. The rapid growth of national debt has led to a rapid increase in interest repayment of national debt, which has greatly increased the burden on the country to repay its debts. 

Trump desperately forced the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sharply to stimulate the declining US economy. 

On September 26, 2018, the Fed raised interest rates, coupled with a rise in the debt repayment ratio of treasury bonds and broke through three points, triggering a sharp fall in the three major stock indexes in New York in October. Since then, President Trump has sent an unknown number of tweets and speeches to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, sharply cut interest rates, or even negative interest rates. Under this tremendous political pressure, the Fed had to cut interest rates three times in a row in the three months of July 31, September 18 and October 30. The important question is, how much room to cut interest rates now? How much can such a small interest rate cut stimulate the US economy? 

Trump's massive trade war has dragged down the development of the US economy. 

There is less than a year to go before the general election on November 3, 2020. In the face of the continued economic downturn in the United States, President Trump has no more effective measures than to continue to press the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and expand its table. Another way to achieve immediate results is to stop the trade war with China, the European Union and other countries as soon as possible and abolish the additional high tariffs, which will be of great benefit to the growth of the US economy and lighten the burden on the broad masses of consumers and thus stimulate domestic consumption in the United States. 

In order to win the election, 2020 of the US economy must stop falling and rebound, especially in the second half of the election, when the US economy must grow faster than it did in 2019. American history shows that how the economy performs in an election year will play a decisive role. President Bush senior was defeated by the economic downturn in the 1992 election, a lesson for President Trump, who desperately wants to be re-elected.

At present, globalization is at a difficult crossroads: on the one hand, the anti-globalization trend has not stopped, the momentum is still strong; on the other hand, the process of globalization is irresistible, still developing, and some new forms have emerged. Globalization and anti-globalization are intertwined with each other, which constitutes a new trend of globalization, which will have a profound impact on the future of the world for a long time to come. 

I. Globalization from acceleration to partial stagnation. 

(I) acceleration of the process of globalization. 

Economic globalization is the core part and leading force in the process of globalization. Economic globalization has made rapid progress after World War II, and every scientific and technological revolution will promote the rapid development of economic globalization. Since the 1990s, with the scientific and technological revolution, especially the progress of electronic and information technology, the popularization of Internet technology and the development of mobile Internet, economic globalization has entered an accelerated stage, covering production, trade, investment and financial fields. From the 1990s to 2008, before the outbreak of the international financial and economic crisis, economic globalization experienced a golden period. 

(2) partial stagnation of globalization. 

With the 2008 international financial crisis as a watershed, economic globalization has changed from acceleration to slow and partial stagnation, which is shown as follows: first, the cross-border flow of factors of production has obviously slowed down and cross-border investment has declined. Second, the slowdown in the growth of international trade has changed the situation in which global trade has continued to expand for more than 20 years. Third, international trade protectionism is on the rise, multilateral trade negotiations are at a standstill, and the WTO Doha Round negotiations have been discussed for more than a decade, but have so far failed. Fourth, as the cornerstone of economic globalization, the process of regional economic integration stagnates or even retrogresses. Fifth, the United States has changed from the standard bearer of free trade to the leader of trade protectionism and from the founder of multilateralism to the promoter of unilateralism. 

With the global economic recession and the low tide of globalization, anti-globalization appeared on the stage, and there is a growing trend. With Britain's vote to leave the European Union in 2016 and Trump's inauguration as president of the United States in early 2017 as a starting point, the anti-globalization has entered a new stage. The original opening-up policy of western developed countries has also begun to change, with trade protectionism in economy, xenophobia in society and conservatism in politics. 

II. Changes in the roles of major countries in the process of globalization. 

The United States has always been the protagonist in the process of economic globalization. However, the excessive expansion of US capital has also had a negative impact on the US domestic economy, such as industrial hollowing out, rising unemployment, huge international trade deficit, and so on. The pace of economic globalization in the United States began to shrink. At the same time, more and more developing countries have joined the process of globalization. The role of globalization has changed as follows: first, great changes have taken place in the number of multinational corporations in both developed and developing countries, and the proportion of the latter in the global top 500 companies has increased. Secondly, regional economic integration or cooperation organizations, mainly composed of developing countries, are playing a more and more important role in economic globalization. China has become a new protagonist in the process of globalization. 

III. The anti-globalization behavior of the Trump administration in the United States. 

After taking office in January 2017, Trump quickly implemented a series of anti-globalization policies, which ran counter to the process of globalization and multilateralism. To sum up, there are mainly the following: (1) "America first" (America First) (II) launching a trade war (3) unilateralism: withdrawing from the group (4) refusing to be subject to multilateral mechanisms and evading international responsibility. 

Britain's Brexit and the anti-globalization trend within the European Union. 

Brexit and the anti-globalization trend within the European Union reflect the twists and turns of the road of globalization, which is one of the new trends in the process of globalization at present and in the future, which is worthy of our attention. However, on the whole, the process of globalization is unstoppable. The world has become a global village, the relationship between countries and human beings is getting closer and closer, and economic globalization will develop in a newer form. The only way to solve the unfair development of globalization is to further develop globalization itself. 

V. the influence of science and technology and information revolution on globalization. 

Scientific and technological progress is the fundamental driving force of globalization, scientific and technological development to a certain stage, the emergence of new technological breakthroughs, that is, the scientific and technological revolution. The revolution of science and technology and information not only has a positive impact on the process of globalization, but also promotes the upgrading of globalization and benefits mankind more. There are also negative effects, aggravating the polarization of globalization and making global governance more difficult. 

It can be inferred that, first, the development of science and technology is endless, and it will provide a continuous driving force for globalization, so the development of globalization is also endless. Second, the future fate of globalization also depends to a certain extent on itself, and there is no doubt that globalization will last only if it is further expanded. To that end, we need a more inclusive globalization, not an opposing globalization. 

VI. Cross-border flow of data in Economic Globalization. 

(1) Cross-border flow of data opens a new stage of globalization. 

The cross-border flow of data is a new phenomenon that has emerged all over the world in the past decade. It is not only the product of the high development of modern information technology, but also a milestone in the new stage of globalization-information globalization. 

(II) the difficult problem of cross-border flow of data and the governance laws and regulations of major countries in the world. 

With the rapid development of the global digital economy, the demand for cross-border data flow is increasing day by day, but the laws and regulations of different countries are very different, and global data protectionism is becoming more and more obvious. How to promote the free flow of data across borders while protecting personal privacy and national and public security is a major challenge in the current era of information globalization.

Al-Qashuji (Jamal Khashoggi), a journalist from Saudi Arabia (hereinafter referred to as "Saudi Arabia"), disappeared from the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, on October 2, 2018, an incident that aroused widespread concern in the international community and led to a stalemate in relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. In fact, the game between Turkey and Saudi Arabia around the "Kashuji incident" is only an episode in the continuous deterioration of relations between the two countries since the change in the Middle East. the complex game between the two sides around the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (hereinafter referred to as the "Muslim Brotherhood") and the sharp struggle in the crisis of severing diplomatic relations in Qatar show that contradictory confrontation has become the main feature of the relationship between the two countries. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are both regional allies of the United States, and although the relationship between the two sides has not been close for a long time, they have basically maintained peace with each other, but in recent years, relations between the two sides have become increasingly strained. What are the reasons behind this? This is the question that this article tries to answer. 

The increasingly tense relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia after the upheaval in the Middle East have its complex historical logic and power logic. In terms of historical logic, the strong return of Turkish diplomacy to the Middle East has exacerbated Saudi insecurity, which in turn reinforces the willingness of both sides to compete for regional leadership. In terms of power logic, the growth of national strength provides a realistic basis for the two countries to compete for regional leadership, which makes the two sides compete fiercely around regional hot issues, regional religious leadership and development model leadership. But at the same time, it should also be noted that this contest is limited in terms of intensity, breadth and impact, and it is more a competition for leadership in the Middle East than a life-and-death conflict. In terms of the development trend of bilateral relations, non-conflicting power competition relations will become the norm of relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia for some time to come. 

Due to differences in historical cognition, religious concepts and development model, it is difficult to improve the competitive relationship between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. In terms of historical cognition, Saudi Arabia regarded the Ottoman Empire as a "colonialist" country that conquered and ruled the Arab nation, while Turkey attributed the rapid collapse of the Ottoman Empire to the "Arab uprising." the one-sided interpretation of history by the political elites of the two countries solidified the hostile consciousness between the people of the two countries. In terms of religious concepts, both Turkey and Saudi Arabia believe that their leadership in the Islamic world has natural legitimacy. Saudi Arabia believes that Turkey, which experienced the baptism of the "Kemal Revolution", is no longer "qualified" to engage in religious dialogue with Arab countries, while Turkey believes that although Saudi Arabia controls the two holy cities of Mecca and Medina, it only shows that it is the protector of the holy land, not the leader of the Islamic world. In terms of political system, Turkey is founded on a secular democratic system, and the Justice and Development Party seeks to combine Islam with democracy and regards itself as the modern development model of moderate Islam. As a monarchy with the integration of politics and religion, Saudi Arabia is regarded as the representative of the traditional Islamic development model in the Middle East. 1 Turkey's support for the export of the development model of Islamic forces such as the Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East is seen by Saudi Arabia as a threat to the security of itself and the GCC national regime. 

Although Turkey and Saudi Arabia have launched a fierce competition over the voice of regional hot issues, religious leadership and the dominance of the development model, the struggle for regional leadership is more of a power competition than a full-scale confrontation. The competition between the two sides is more in the proxy competition of third parties (such as Egypt, Qatar, Syria), as well as the soft power competition around the development model and religious leadership. This kind of power competition is completely different from the structural and comprehensive confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and both sides are allies of the United States, and the contradictions between the two sides will be restrained to a certain extent by the control and restriction of the United States. However, it is worth noting that the regional leadership competition between Saudi Arabia and Turkey and the structural confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran will have an important impact on shaping the pattern of the Middle East, and these two kinds of power relations will give rise to many complex forms of cooperation, competition, or confrontation on many hot issues in the Middle East, which also makes it difficult for the Middle East region to achieve balance at the power level and order at the institutional level. And one of the root causes of continued tension and instability in the regional situation.

In recent years, the political situation on the island is changeable, and there are no rules to follow, so it is difficult to make accurate predictions. Although Taiwan's political parties are constantly engaged in alliances, cooperation, and struggles with political forces, there can still be a basic judgment, that is, under the principal contradiction of reunification and independence (or "independence and non-independence"), the blue-green dual political structure and the absolute political status of the two major parties of the state and the people cannot be changed, and although there is a continuous transformation of the third largest party, it is difficult to be optimistic about the space for the development of the third force. 

I. at present, the basic pattern of Taiwan's political structure is relatively stable. 

(1) Taiwan's political structure presents a blue-green dual super-stable political structure, and it is still difficult for other political forces to replace the position of the state and the people. (2) the third largest party is constantly changing, but there is no fixed phenomenon of the third largest party. what is more, no third force has become a stable political force. (3) almost all small parties with certain influence or popularity are typical "individual leading parties." It is difficult to continuously develop into an influential big party (4) the phenomenon and prospect of the alliance of Ke, Guo, Wang and other political forces. The withdrawal of Ke and Guo from the election does not mean withdrawing from the political arena, but begins a new political operation and layout, referring to the general election in 2024, but its trend is still worthy of continuous observation. 

II. The changeable public opinion, public opinion and political situation in Taiwan, and the transformation of the situation and election situation of the two parties of the country and the people. 

(1) Tsai ing-wen and the ruling crisis, infighting and election counterattack of the Democratic Progressive Party. 

At a time when outsiders are optimistic about the KMT, pessimistic about Tsai ing-wen and judging whether Tsai ing-wen will become the first leader who cannot be re-elected, changes in political and public opinion on the island have once again changed the traditional thinking of outsiders and scholars, and Tsai ing-wen's situation and election situation counterattack. 

There are four main reasons for analyzing the changes in Cai's election situation. First, Taiwan's voter structure or political structure has emerged that "green is greater than blue." Second, Tsai ing-wen has mastered all the ruling resources and dared to use them. This real benefit is more practical and more effective than the empty slogans and promises of Korean yoga. Third, Taiwan's media ecology is seriously green, and the Green Camp has thoroughly mastered and dominated Taiwan's voice. Fourth, the Kuomintang is not United, there is serious infighting, and it elects candidates who are not particularly suitable, and has repeatedly made mistakes in the election, causing constant controversy. Fifth, the development of the "counter-amendment incident" in Hong Kong has affected Taiwan and has been operated and utilized by the Green Camp, constantly creating the so-called "dried mango" ("sense of national subjugation") and public opinion with a sense of crisis "Hong Kong today, Taiwan tomorrow". In addition, changes in the situation of Sino-US relations and US intervention in the island's elections and public "supporting Tsai" actions have also affected the changes in the election situation on the island. 

(2) the reversal of the excellent situation of the Kuomintang and the change of the inner-party power structure. 

People had thought that the KMT would take advantage of the "Korean Wave" and "nine-in-one" victory launched by Han Guoyu to regain power in the general election in early 2020. However, a good game of chess in the Kuomintang turned into excessive chess, and the "Korean Wave" became a "cold wave". One of the keys is that the Kuomintang political elites have a strong desire for personal power, only personal power and interests are calculated, and no priority is given to the interests of the party. The departure of Terry Gou is a great loss to the development of the Kuomintang and the election of South Korea. 

Under the new political and election situation, the current power structure of the KMT presents a "two-core pluralistic" pattern. A party Central Committee headed by Wu Den-Yi's party chairman holds the party's sovereign resources and the right to nominate "legislators" and has the support of a large number of party elites. The other is candidate Han Guoyu and his team, who rely on "Korean fans". In addition to the "two cores", there are many forces within the KMT. One is the Zhu-Hou power. The second is the influence of Wang Jinping. The third is the influence of Ma Ying-jeou. In addition, there is a unified force and other forces represented by Hung Hsiu-chu. 

III. The situation of the election and the possible trend of political development in the future. 

At present, Taiwan's leadership election is basically a showdown between Tsai and Han, and the election situation is "Cai Qiang and Han weak." In theory or general judgment, the possibility of Cai winning is relatively high, but it does not rule out the possibility of Han winning unexpectedly, but the probability of the latter is lower. If there is a situation of "Cai Sheng and Han defeat", there will be many variables in the situation and trend of South Korea in the future, which will have a great impact on the future development of the Kuomintang. 

The new legislative election is as important as the leadership election, and the competition is more fierce, focusing on who will be the third largest party. After the election, the political ecology of the "Legislative Yuan" will have an important impact on the political situation on the island. 

In addition, observing this "legislative" election, the KMT candidates are mainly middle-aged and elderly, with more women and fewer young people, indicating a relative lack of combat effectiveness and antagonism in the "Legislative Yuan" in the future. This is an important issue that the KMT must attach great importance to, thoroughly and boldly reform, vigorously strive for and train young people, and smoothly promote the replacement of generations.