The Political Development of the World and China’s Role

Liu Jianfei

In recent years, new repertoire has continued on the world political arena. The Brexit is in trouble; the United States under Trump Administration is in chaos; many EU countries are facing more and more internal social protest movements; the US-Russian military strategic competition is increasingly fierce; and Sino-US economic and trade frictions are difficult to eliminate. How shall we view this changing world politics? How shall we understand the argument that "we are in a great change that has never happened in a hundred years"? Where is the world going? What role will China play? This paper attempts to make a rough description and non-study interpretation on these issues.

First, the basic state of contemporary world politics

World politics covers a wide range of contents, among which the subject, foundation, theme, pattern, international relations and international order are relatively basic ones, which together constitute the basic feature of world politics.

(1) The main subject of contemporary world politics

(2) The foundation of contemporary world politics: the interaction between sovereign states and globalization

(3) The theme of contemporary world politics: peace and development

(4) The pattern of contemporary world politics: non-Westernization, multi-polarization and non-polarization coexist

(5) International relations in contemporary world politics

(6) International order in contemporary world politics

Second, major changes in contemporary world politics that are taking place

General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at the 2018 Central Foreign Affairs Working Conference: "At present, China is in the best period of development in modern times, and the world is in a state of great change in a hundred years. The two are intertwined and interacting." His words profoundly revealed the internal and external environment and conditions faced by China entering a new era. China has encountered a “big change” in the “new era”. This great change will definitely bring uncertainty and severe challenges to world peace and stability as well as China’s development, but it will also bring new opportunities to for China to implement its important strategies. So how shall we view this "great change in a hundred years"? Looking at the world history in the past 100 years, although the current change is not as fierce as the two world wars, nor as turbulent as the end of the Cold War, the comprehensive meaning is more far-reaching.

(1) Changes in the process of globalization: the main driving force is being restructured.

(2) Changes in the focus of the world economy: moving from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean.

(3) Changes in global governance: emerging countries are expected to become the backbone of governance system reform.

(4) Changes in the world political pattern: it is difficult to reverse the trend of eastern countries’ rise and western countries’ decline.

Third, the trend of contemporary world politics and China’s actions

The great change in the past hundred years shows that the world today is facing various new challenges and new dilemmas. Human civilization has reached an important node or crossroads. It requires insightful people to seriously think about "What is wrong with the world?" "Where is humankind going?" General Secretary Xi Jinping, on behalf of China which has entered a new era and is approaching the center of the world stage, answered the question of the times. That is, to build a community of shared destiny for humankind.

(1) A community of shared destiny for humankind: a blueprint for the Vision of World Politics

(2) China's role in the contemporary political evolution

Building a Community of Shared Future for Humankind: Ideas, Tasks and Measures

Wang Jiacheng

The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China puts forward "consisting on the path of peaceful development and promoting the building of a community of human destiny". This is a Chinese dream, a strategic goal of the diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in order to realize the Chinese dream--the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, based on that the socialism with Chinese characteristics enters a new era. Today, the world is in a period of great development, great change and great adjustment. Peace and development are still the theme of the times. The dreams of the Chinese people are closely related to the dreams of the people of all countries. The realization of the Chinese dream is inseparable from the peaceful international environment and the stable international order. We must adhere to the path of peaceful development, and the opening-up strategy to pursue mutual benefit. We must coordinate domestic and international situations, actively develop foreign relations, firmly grasp the main line of serving the national rejuvenation and promoting human progress, and let the Chinese people’s dreams meet the dreams of the people of all countries. They will complement each other and continue to create a new situation in the diplomacy of a big country with Chinese characteristics.

First, we should build a community of shared destiny for humankind, which is an important content of the socialist diplomatic thought with Chinese characteristics in the new era

1. We must promote the construction of new international relations of mutual respect, fairness, justice, cooperation and win-win.

2. We must promote a world of lasting peace, universal security, common prosperity, openness, tolerance and cleanliness.

Second, we should work together like passengers in the same boat, promote win-win cooperation, and the construction of an innovative, open, linked, and inclusive world economy

1. We must promote common development with new development concepts.

2. We must promote integrated development with a win-win and open strategy.

3. We must strengthen interconnection and interoperability to achieve linkage development.

Third, we should focus on the construction of the “Belt and Road”, open up and develop in an all-round way, and build a community of shared destiny for humankind

1. Countries along the "Belt and Road" route are important engines of world economic growth.

2. The construction of "Belt and Road" must adhere to and follow the principle of joint management, co-construction and sharing.

3. We should build the "Belt and Road" into a broad road to construct a community of shared destiny for humankind.

In summary, we will lead the development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, and promote the construction of the “Belt and Road” in the overall “5 in 1” layout of politics, society, economy, culture and ecology. By focusing on the principle of joint management, co-construction and sharing, adhering to the means of dialogue and consultation, win-win strategy and cooperation, mutual learning, and green and low-carbon, China and other countries will surely complete the historical mission of building a community of shared destiny for humankind in the new era.

Employment Situation During 2018 and 2019 and its Countermeasures

Yang Yiyong/ Dang Siqi

2018 marks the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening up. During the transition from a planned economy to a market economy, the Party and the government have continuously broken the barriers of the planned economic system, always attaching great importance to employment, which complements the long-term rapid growth. In response to the “new mediocrity” of the economy caused by the 2008 financial crisis, in 2014, the Central Economic Conference clearly pointed out that the development of China’s economy began to change from an extensive mode to a quality-efficient one, marking the beginning of China’s new economic normal. The adjustment of the economic structure has significantly enhanced employment, making it proceed into a supply-side structural reform stage. This has placed higher requirements on the quality of the employed population. In 2015, the government encouraged people to start businesses and make innovations, and entrepreneurial innovation has become an important source of employment growth. Subsequently, the Party’s report on the 19th National Congress further pointed out that “the employment priority strategy and the active employment policy should be adhered to to achieve higher quality and full employment”, and once again listed the quality of employment as a priority. At present, China's economy is still operating under the logic of the new normal. At the same time, with the steady growth of the national economy and the continuous effects of active employment policies, China's employment will continue to maintain a stable and upward trend in 2018, with the employment scale expanding and the structure being optimized. However, the labor market still faces problems such as unemployment risks in some areas, a decline in labor participation rate, and a shortage of high-tech talents.

I. Characteristics of the employment situation in 2018

(1) The total employment volume continued to grow and the employment situation remained stable.

(2) The absorption capacity of the service industry was enhanced, and the policy of encouraging people to start businesses and make innovations drived employment growth.

(3) The employment stability has been further enhanced, and vocational skills training has seen progress.

(4) The employment market sentiment index fell slightly, and the regional differences were more obvious.

(5) The potential labor supply and labor participation rate continued to decline, and the company encountered a “labor shortage”.

II. The new employment challenges under the new economic situation

(1) We should rationally look at "machine substitution".

(2) Resolving excess capacity and eliminating backward production capacity is a long-term dynamic process

(3) Rethinking the employment caused by trade friction

(4) The impact of the adjustment of the birth policy on employment cannot be ignored

III. Comprehensive measures to promote employment

(1) We must focus on improving the quality of employment and workforce.

(2) We must strengthen government responsibilities and improve public services.

(3) We must strengthening the policy of encouraging people to start businesses and make innovations from all angles.

(4) We must care for employment forms on the network economy platform

The Contention for Hegemony among Western Countries and the Two World Wars

Li Changjiu

Modern world history started from the beginning of the 20th century. By the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, the world had been divided, and most countries and regions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America became colonies or semi-colonies of Western powers. However, the newly-imposed imperialist countries have fewer colonies. In order to redistribute the colonies and compete for world hegemony, the two imperialist military blocs fought fiercely and eventually led to two world wars.

First, Germany was the culprit in launching two world wars.

Second, the First World War launched by Germany and its failure.

Third, the Second World War launched by Germany and Japan and its failure.

Fourth, Germany’s rise again on the "ruins".

(1) From fighting against the neighbors to becoming friends with them

(2) From military first to the economic priority

(3) From a free market economy to a social market economy

Over the years, Germany’s economic model and security strategy have revolved around European integration and Germany's role within the EU. But to face the challenges today Germany requires a new strategic vision. The question faced by the next prime minister will be: “Where is Germany going?” Fischer believes that the transformation of Germany’s domestic and international policy is more important than leadership changes. The breakdown of international relations is shaking the foundation of post-war democracy in Germany. Under the leadership of President Trump, the United States denied the West and its representatives. Fischer proposed: What role should Germany play in the next few years? Ten years later, as a European, what position do we have to occupy? And what will we represent? What happens next, no one can say. Much of this will depend on whether Germany will continue to carry out its European mission with France.

Can Germany continue to follow the path of peaceful development? Can Germany and France continue to cooperate to maintain the process of European integration? The world is paying attention to the above issues.

An Analysis of the "Exterior and Interior" of Financial Science and Technology Development

Cao Dongpo

In recent years, with the rapid development of emerging technologies, the rise of financial technology represented by big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, etc. is having a significant and profound impact on the current financial system. A series of innovations in financial technology have not only diversified the financial products and service models, but also greatly improved the efficiency of financial services. At the same time, the rapid integration of new technologies and traditional finance is also driving new changes in the financial system, becoming an important driving force for promoting the upgrading and development of the financial industry, which may open a new era of financial development.

I. Analysis of the related concepts of financial technology

(1) What is financial technology?

(2) Financial Technology and Internet Finance

(3) Financial Technology and Technology Finance

II. Overview of financial technology development

(1) The development of financial technology

(2) The entities of financial technology

III. Financial technology profoundly changes the current financial system

(1) Financial technology reshapes financial services capabilities

(2) Financial technology and traditional finance integrate rapidly

(3) Financial technology promotes new financial formats

IV. Associated risks brought about by the rapid development of financial technology

(1) Significant changes in traditional financial risk patterns

(2) The underlying technology risks cannot be ignored

(3) Some innovation activities may deviate from the financial essence

(4) Risks are gradually accumulated under the supervision of misplacement

V. Supervision of financial technology

(1) Foreign status of supervision over financial technology

(2) Domestic regulatory status for financial technology

VI. Future development trend of financial technology

(1) The integration of digital technology and financial innovation accelerates

(2) The financial service model based on cooperation and sharing is more common

(3) Decentralized financial system is expected to be established

The Game Among Middle East Countries Concerning Muslim Brotherhood and its Essence

Liu Zhongmin/ Zhao Yuechen

In June 2017, the crisis of the break-off between Saudi Arabia and Qatar attracted widespread attention from the international community. It was intriguing that one of Saudi Arabia’s conditions for resumption of diplomatic relations was that Qatar must suspend support for “thomalin organizations” such as the Muslim Brotherhood, which was inexplicable to the rest of the world.

I. Internationalized islamist organization: the Muslim Brotherhood will influence the foundation of international relations.

(1) The stage of mission organization: 1928-1939.

(2) The stage of politicization: 1939-1954.

(3) The stage of recession and differentiation: 1954-1981.

(4) The stage of legal participation in politics: 1981-2013.

II. The dispute over the development model of Islam: Saudi Arabia’s attack and influence on the Muslim Brotherhood

III. Leading the direction of the transitional Arab countries: Turkey's support and influence on the Muslim Brotherhood

IV. Competing for religious discourse: Qatar's support and influence on the Muslim Brotherhood

V. Remarks: Characteristics and trends of international relations in the Middle East viewing from the game around the Muslim Brotherhood

In recent years, the sub-national actors represented by Islamism have been extremely active, posing sustained and strong challenges to the international relations in the Middle East, and profoundly affecting the formulation and implementation of domestic and foreign policies in the Middle East. However, national state is still the basic structure of international relations in this region. Islamism does not have the ability to replace and subvert the existing state power and the national system of the Middle East.

Several Trends of the Changes in the World Situation

Ding Yuanhong

"The world today is undergoing a great change that’s never happened in the past 100 years." This is President Xi Jinping’s in-depth analysis of the world situation by using dialectical materialism's standpoints, viewpoints, and methods. It is of great significance to correctly understand the current complex and ever-changing world situation, accurately judge the future development trend, and accordingly formulate corresponding countermeasures. To understand, study, and implement this scientific assertion put forward by President Xi, it is crucial to observe and treat everything in the world in accordance with the use of dialectical materialism advocated by President Xi rather than subjective idealism.

The current major and profound changes that are being experienced are the result of the intensification of political, economic, military, cultural, ethnic, religious, and social conflicts over the years. It is manifested in many aspects, mainly being the rise of emerging economies represented by China and India has led to fundamental changes in the balance of power between developing and developed countries. The "Western Free World Order" dominated the world after World War II, however, it ended because of the state-owned malpractices of the capitalist systems of the Western powers such as the United States and Europe. These two factors are intertwined, and the various forces in the world are experiencing a rare turmoil, a great division, and a major restructuring.

There are several major trends in the current world situation:

First, U.S. hegemonism continues to wreak havoc and endangers world peace.

Second, the various nationalist forces have renewed interest and have a huge impact.

Third, increasingly sharp social contradictions exacerbate the turmoil.

(1) Most of the ethnic (racial) disputes in the world today are formed over a period.

(2) All kinds of violent activities are becoming increasingly rampant around the world, and this is the inevitable result of sharpening social contradictions.

(3) There are differences between rich and poor people, rich and poor countries, and developed and developing countries.

Fourth, although there are no urgent concerns about the world economic situation, the long-term hidden dangers are grim.

In a nutshell, the current world economic situation is: the downward pressure is obvious, the trade friction is increasing, and the development imbalance is serious, but there is still no major accident that completely disrupts the global geopolitical economic structure. However, from a long-term perspective, there are hidden dangers in the world economy that cannot be ignored.

(1) Due to the financialization of monopoly capital and the base camp of the monopoly capital in the United States, in order to gain extra profits, the scale of the virtual economy is arbitrarily expanded, and the excess of financial capital threatens the normal operation of the world economy.

(2) Due to a number of factors, especially in the United States and Europe, the long-term implementation of deficit finances, the debt level continues to rise.

(3) Since the beginning of the 1970s, when the US dollar replaced gold as an international currency, the US economy has benefited a lot.

The above four major trends have caused the world to experience a major change that’s never happened in the past 100 years, and more changes will occur. The duration will be quite long and unpredictable.

Facing Chaos: Putin's Return to Realism

Feng Yunjun

The past 2018 marks the centennial anniversary of the first World War and the tenth anniversary of the 2008 international financial crisis. Although people are rethinking the catastrophe and chaos of the past, the real world has not become more orderly and peaceful. Great changes, major divisions, restructurings and adjustments around the world are still undergoing.

In May 2018, Putin returned to the Kremlin, opened his fourth presidential term and will be in power until 2024, and his ruling ideas have basically been "regression of realism". In fact, in the early years of Putin's administration in the early 21st century, realism was the main tone of his governance. However, as international oil prices climbed to promote rapid economic growth and relative recovery of national power, Russia's internal affairs and diplomacy entered a more "radical" period. In particular, around 2008, "the United States has declined", "multipolarization has become a reality", "Russia can make a difference" and other judgments once dominated Russia's international strategic view. In 2007, Putin's "Munich Speech", the 2008 Russia-Georgia War, and the 2014 Crimean crisis were the manifestation of Russia's "strong diplomacy".

However, the accompanying Western sanctions and the international oil price’s cliff-style diving have severely hindered the development of Russia's economy and greatly deteriorated the international environment. In the face of grim reality, Russia has to re-examine the international environment, adjust its international strategy as well as internal and external policies, and gradually return to rational and pragmatic realism.

First, domestic affairs are more important than diplomacy.

Second, diplomacy tends to be rational, and strives to "get through the cold winter".

At the same time, however, we must not fail to see that China may not be able to obtain symmetrical expected returns from Sino-Russian relations: strategically, the enthusiasm for relations with Russia does not seem to ease the pressure from the United States, and may even worsen the US strategic perception of China; Economically, even if the trade volume between China and Russia reaches 200 billion US dollars, Russia cannot replace the value of the United States in China in terms of market, investment, technology, knowledge, management and social governance. Under the international change, Russia is returning to realism, and Sino-Russian relations have entered an important transition period. The asymmetry of the national strength of the two sides, the inequality of strategic operations and the imbalance of cost and return are issues we need to pay attention to.

CPTPP Hardly Enables Japan to Reject Trade Protectionism Posed by US

Liu Junhong

On January 19, 2019, the first ministerial meeting (TPP Committee) after Japan’s new version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which did not include the United States, namely the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP), was held in Tokyo, starting to develop procedures for accepting new members. Abe personally went to the meeting and advocated that Japan will go all out to be the standard-bearer of free trade and protect CPTPP members against protectionism. At the same time, in view of the upcoming entry into force of the Japan-Europe EPA, some media believe that Japan has opened up two huge economic circles outside the United States and China and began to dominate the free trade system. It advocates that China should strive to join the “CPTPP” and avoid passive situation in the future. So can Japan really use CPTPP to resist the United States and dominate the free trade system?

According to the plan, the US-Japan trade negotiations will be held in January 2019. The United States has made it clear that it will not accept the Japanese presupposed standards in the agricultural sector. The United States may follow the US-Canada trade agreement and require Japan to accept “exchange rate clauses”, “quantity targets” and even “poison pills clauses”. Obviously, low-level and low-quality CPTPP and Japan-Europe EPA cannot reject the US offense.

In fact, both China and the United States are the largest export markets in Japan. To balance the United States in the trade war, it is difficult to establish an in-depth strategy without relying on China. After the East Asian financial crisis, the “ASEAN+China, Japan and Korea” (10+3) model became the main channel for cooperation in East Asia. Today, China-Japan-Korea trade has surpassed Sino-US trade. China-ASEAN trade is also close to Sino-US trade. China and ASEAN have become Japan's largest “direct investment sourses”. The East Asian economy, industry, trade and investment structure have undergone historic changes. The number of patents applied by the international community in China has ranked first in the world for seven consecutive years, and the population of China, India and ASEAN accounts for about 45% of the world. In the future, the problem is obviously not whether East Asia should join the Japanese-led CPTPP, but how Japan can find a path to return to East Asian cooperation.

The Turbulence in Europe

Ding Yuanhong

On the Munich Security Conference held this year on February 14-15, due to the rift between the Transatlantic Alliance and Europe, participants are pessimistic about whether so-called free world order dominated by the West can be maintained. Yishengel, the president of the Mu'an Association, publicly admitted that "things will not get better". At the meeting, US Vice President Pence and German Chancellor Merkel debated whether Iran should abolish the Iranian nuclear agreement. French President Macron withdrew his promise to join the conference with Merkel, publicly breaking the coalition between France and Germany. The British-European negotiations about Brexit have came across a stalemate, and argues inside Britain are also endless. Poland has ignored the opposition of France, Germany and other countries, and joined hands with the United States to convene a so-called “Middle East Security Conference” and set up a permanent contact group. The dispute between the United States and Russia to withdraw from the "Guidelines on the Treaty" has further threatened the security situation in Europe. There are many signs that Europe is at the forefront of the turmoil.

At present, there are three major challenges facing the EU and the Transatlantic Alliance: First, the "Brexit" has given a fatal blow to the European integration process. Second, the last pillar of European integration--the French-German axis has become alienated. Third, Trump insisted on "overhauling" the relationship between the United States and its allies.

Europe is experiencing great turmoil, great division, and major restructuring. The prospects are hard to predict. Although the EU will not disintegrate like the former Soviet Union, as predicted by the Hungarian-American businessman Soros, it is inevitable that it is gradually declining.

General Secretary Xi Jinping Solemnly Issued a Declaration on the Peaceful Reunification of the Two Sides of the Taiwan Strait

Wang Jianmin

On January 2, 2019, General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered an important speech at the Great Hall of the People in commemorating the 40th anniversary of the publication of the "Taiwan Compatriots" and put forward five important political ideas for promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and achieving peaceful reunification across the Taiwan Straits. This is the declaration of peaceful cross-strait reunification proposed by the new Party Central Committee with Xi Jinping as the core, and is the action program for future work on Taiwan and the promotion of peaceful reunification.

"Unification" becomes the core concept and the strongest voice of the times

For the first time, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly proposed to explore the "one country, two systems" Taiwan program.

Calling for "to be a righteous Chinese" and awakening the Chinese people's consciousness in Taiwan compatriots

Reiterating that "Chinese people do not fight Chinese people" and emphasizing that "Chinese people help Chinese people"

Fully expounding the four dialectical relationships of understanding and dealing with the Taiwan issue

Three important arguments and assertions

General Secretary Xi emphasized that "the great motherland will always be the strong backing of all patriotic unity!" This is the greatest comfort and support for the unification of the island. The unified forces on the island or the party members of the political party gave high affirmation, praise and support to the speech of General Secretary Xi in the first time, and formed a strong contrast with the positions of the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party. The first party chairman of the New Party expressed his willingness to take the lead in negotiating with the mainland. He even stressed that he would rather sit in prison for five years in order to do his best for the peaceful reunification of the two sides. The New Party youth Wang Bingzhong also accepted the "Global Times" interview for the first time to speak out his support for the speech of General Secretary Xi, expressing his pride in "doing the righteous Chinese people" and his strong desire and support for the peaceful reunification of the two sides. This indicates that firm support for the united forces will be one of the most important tasks for the next step of the central government's work in Taiwan.