China Strategic Review
China Strategic Review - 9-10/2020
Release Time:2020-10-15
Following the General Principle of Pursuing Progress while Ensuring Stability to Achieve Sustainable Economic and Social Development
Wang Jiacheng

2020 is the year for China to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and achieve its first centennial goal. Adhering to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully ensuring stability on six fronts and maintain security in six areas and sustained and healthy economic and social development are the major policy decision and deployment put forward by the Central Economic Work Conference and the annual NPC and CPPCC sessions and must be effectively delivered to meet the targets and tasks of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. Looking to the future, adhering to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, leading the stable and harmonious development of economy and society with the new development philosophy, and promoting the construction of a modern economic system are the fundamental compliance and strategic support for realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

The general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability is an important principle of governance established by the close combination of theory and practice in promoting economic and social development in China. To adhere to the general principle of of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, stability is the main principle, progress is the main direction, structural adjustment is a major measure, promoting reform is a strong driving force, preventing risks is an important task, and benefiting the people's livelihood is the fundamental goal. It is of great strategic significance to ensure the realization of the two centennial goals as scheduled.

At present, it is necessary to fully deliver the work of ensuring stability on six fronts and implement the task of maintaining security in six areas to ensure the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way is achieved. During the 14th five-year Plan, it is necessary to speed up high quality economic development, firmly guarantee and improve people's livelihood, and lay a solid foundation for the basic realization of socialist modernization. In the next 25 years, we should make every effort to promote the construction of a modern economic system and provide strong support for building a modern socialist power in an all-round way.

Global Economic and Trade Order Change and the Adjustment of Global Industrial Chain
Wang Jianmin/Zhang Weiying

At present, the world is at an important moment of the centennial changes of the world. The world political and economic pattern is undergoing the greatest change since the world war, and will have a far-reaching impact on the global economic development and the adjustment of the industrial chain and supply chain. There are two key factors in the great changes in world politics and economy: firstly, the United States with its global supremacy has adopted the strategy of "America first" and is pursuing nationalism, unilateralism, economic and trade protectionism and economic nationalism, as well as the comprehensive China containment strategy established by the United States, and put pressure on allies to establish a strategic encirclement of China, in an attempt to reshape the world political and economic pattern. Secondly, the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic in early 2020 and its global spread have a significant impact on world economic development and global industrial chain and supply chain production, as well as the reflection and adjustment of major economies on economic development strategy, economic security and industrial development. In the short term, the global economy has fallen into the most serious and extensive recession since the war, and there is a high degree of uncertainty and variability in global political and economic development. In the long run, it is a significant increase in the risk of Sino-US confrontation brought about by the strategic adjustment of the United States towards China, comprehensive containment of China's economy, trade, science and technology, finance, and provocations on sensitive issues related to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang and the South China Sea, as well as the major changes in the global political and economic pattern, the global industrial chain and the supply chain caused by the confrontation between Sino-US relations and the COVID-19 epidemic. It can be said that under the great changes of a century, the world political and economic pattern is undergoing major adjustments and changes, with far-reaching implications.

I. Important changes are taking place in the international economic and trade order, and challenges to China are rising significantly.

At present, the competition for international economic and trade rules and regional economic cooperation are showing a new trend of development.

First, the operation and reform of WTO have become one of the focuses of the new round of contending for international economic and trade rules, especially Europe, the United States and Japan requiring the formulation of stricter subsidy rules.

Second, developed countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan have denied China's market economy status and the "poison pill clause" of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement led by the United States, all restrict the development of China's foreign trade and prevent relevant countries from signing free trade agreements with China.

Third, the deconstruction and reconstruction of global regional economic organizations are carried out at the same time, and bilateral and multilateral regional economic integration is promoted at the same time, bringing more challenges to China's economic development.

Fourth, new economic and trade frictions and disputes have been caused by historical, political and other non-economic factors. Many countries or regions politicization of economic issues or economization of political issues.

II. The US-led attempt to reconstruct the dual international economic structure of "decoupling with China" and "non-China"

(1) The United States strives to exclude China in multilateral international affairs.
(2) The establishment of a "trusted partner alliance" with the industrial supply chains excluding China under the India-Pacific strategy and the establishment of a "supply chain alliance" of Japan, India and Australia are aimed at countering China.
(3) To exclude Chinese enterprises from the construction of international submarine cables.
(4) Enterprises in Europe, the United States and Japan shall establish enterprise alliances excluding China.
(5) The United States leads the establishment of the Open Wireless access Network Policy Alliance (ORAN).
(6) The US Government promotes the "Clean Internet Program" in an attempt to exclude China from the world network system.
(7) The United States is trying to establish a "One world, Two Systems" structure, that is, "Chinese standard" and "American standard".
(8) To confront and contain the construction of "Belt and Road Initiative" advocated by China.

III. Many countries or regions have stepped up the examination and control of overseas investment on the grounds of economic security, seriously affecting international economic, industrial and technological cooperation.

At present, the international community or major economies are engaged in fierce competition around a new round of high-tech development, such as 5G, artificial intelligence, big data and so on. Among them, the United States uses national strength to crack down on Huawei, ZTE and other Chinese high-tech enterprises and put pressure on allies to jointly contain, affecting the normal international business competition and the development of international economy and industry. At the same time, after the influence of COVID-19 's epidemic situation, many countries or regions around the world have adopted stricter control measures on foreign investment and merger on the grounds of economic security, while the control on investment and merger of Chinese enterprises is more obvious. Among them, the United States, Europe, Japan, India and Taiwan are the most typical.

IV. A new trend of major adjustment of the global industrial chain and supply chain.

At present, the global industrial chain and supply chain adjustment show the following three major characteristics.

(1) In the process of international industrial chain and supply chain adjustment, the economic strategic game between China and the United States has attracted the most attention and had the greatest influence.

(2) There is a new trend of adjustment in the global industrial chain and supply chain.

(3) After the COVID-19 epidemic, many countries or regions began policy plans to "rebuild the supply chain" to improve their supply systems, while some countries introduced policies to encourage enterprises to return.

A Humble Opinion on the Drastic Change of Chinas Capital Investment Relations with Japan
Li Changjiu

In the past 120 years since the beginning of the 20th century, the Sino-Japanese capital investment relationship has experienced three periods: Japan as the country that invests the most in China, the country that plundered the most Chinese resources, and the period of complementary and mutually beneficial investment between China and Japan. The impact of the drastic changes in Sino-Japanese capital investment relations on the two countries is very different. In about half a century, China has suffered huge losses. It is necessary to lead the development of capital investment relations between the two countries in the direction of complementation and mutual benefit for the benefit of the two countries and the two peoples.

Why Japan has become the country with the largest amount of investment in China.

After the Sino-Japanese War, the Russo-Japanese War and the first World War, although it was restrained and suppressed by the United States, Japan was still the country with the largest investment, the fastest expansion and benefit the most in China. Japanese investment in China accounted for 45% of total foreign investment in China in 1930, up from 0.1% in 1902. But this is only the first step for Japan to invade China. Japan's goal is to occupy China, control Asia and dominate the world.

Japan is the country that plundered the most of China's resources.

Japan's aggression against China and the plunder of China's resources were premeditated, step-by-step, and fully prepared. Therefore, Japan is the country that plundered the most of China's resources.

Complementary and mutually beneficial investment between China and Japan.

From 1979 to 2019, Japan's actual direct investment in China reached 115.7 billion US dollars, accounting for 6.1% of China's total foreign direct investment, ranking first by country statistics. During the same period, China's actual direct investment in Japan totaled US $3.7 billion. The cumulative amount of actual direct investment between the two countries is very uneven, but the investment between the two countries is still complementary and mutually beneficial.

The economic, scientific, technological and trade markets between China and Japan are highly complementary, and there are broad fields and prospects for cooperation between the two countries. In order to promote Sino-Japanese economic, trade and investment cooperation to be stable and far-reaching:

Firstly, the senior leaders of China and Japan are strengthening their guidance. Secondly, enterprises of the two countries continue to be a strong driving force for the sustained development of Sino-Japanese relations. Thirdly, it is necessary to properly handle the trilateral relations between China, the United States and Japan.

US Attempt to Drive Wedge between China and Russia Doomed to Fail
Yu Sui

In order to seek reelection, Trump used every possible means to smear, scapegoat and suppress China with the COVID-19 epidemic. Alienating Sino-Russian relations is one of its dirty tricks. Some American and Western media, which follow crazy and evil politicians like Pompeo, try their best to add fuel to the flames, while in China, there are also some pro-American scum who cooperate in different covert ways. The Trump administration will not succeed in alienating Sino-Russian relations. The comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between China and Russia has been continuously strengthened in joint epidemic prevention.

The New Conditions of Global Terrorism and Anti-Terrorism in the Post-Islamic State Era
Yuan Ze

I. A 20-Year Review of Anti-Terrorism
2021 is the 20th year of the 9/11 terrorist attack. Over the past 20 years, it has been hard to extinguish terrorism which has become more treacherous and a regular "gray rhino". The military victory against terrorism has not become eternal and once and for all. The war on counter-terrorism is not only an intelligence war, a sniper war, and a battle against hardship, but also a political war, a war as a whole, and a protracted war. We should take the initiative to adjust and refine the countermeasures. A 20-year review of the 9/11 incident should not only be regarded as a time and space symbol of the change of international terrorism and the war on terrorism, but should also be raised to a new height in guiding the international war against terrorism to the blue sea.

II. Islamic State is Making a Comeback
The global terrorism in the post-Baghdadi era did not vanish with the Baghdadi's death, and Islamic State went on a killing spree to create panic. The Saudi Arabian News, an influential newspaper in the Middle East, pointed out that "the IS in 2019 will be a more experienced and organically integrated transnational extremist organization than in 2014." In addition to Iraq and Syria and other anti-terrorism front-line countries, West Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the African continent have seen a lot of attacks. It is recognized by powerful departments of various countries that since the capture of Bagus, the international anti-terrorism axis has changed; IS 2.0 has had a particularly fierce impact on the international security situation, and the difficulty of competing with this extremist organization mainly lies in that "the danger is difficult to find"; a strategic contest is in a seesaw struggle, and the international anti-terrorism war has entered a new stage.

III. How Islamic State Restore its "Country" and Consolidate its "Army"
At present, IS still has over 20,000 troops in Iraq and Syria, double the number when the "country" was founded in 2014, and still maintains more than 50 branches around the world. The "cells" of these terrorist attacks formed a secret network with about 400 million US dollars funds, and with the help of modern communication means, they were uniformly transferred by the command center, repaired themselves, carried out guerrilla attacks, planted improvised explosive devices, dropped bombs using drones, and carried out targeted assassinations. Thus it can be seen that military failure does not mean the end of the terrorist organization. If it is not suppressed and eradicated, the Islamic State will revive and seek survival through terrorist attacks, advance with violence, and once again become a major threat to international security.

IV. The Islamic State is Rearing its Head again under Cover of Coronavirus
The economy is in chaos because of the epidemic, and all countries are fighting against the virus. The terrorist forces led by IS regard the epidemic as a heaven-sent opportunity to attack civilians and military targets everywhere and commit crimes crazily. Terrorist attacks and epidemic situation are intertwined, and the fight against the epidemic is compounded by anti-terrorism, resulting in increased social unrest in many countries. Even in the heart of Europe, where cities are heavily guarded, there are frequent terrorist attacks. In addition, IS branches in Asia have also taken advantage of the epidemic to expand their networks. Africa is the hardest hit target of The terrorist attack. The Islamic State have taken advantage of the epidemic to resurge, retreating to the mountains and countryside and recruiting new blood. Pirates are infested again off the coast of Somalia. The COVID-19 epidemic has had a great impact on the normal operation of international anti-terrorism military operations, and some countries have interrupted cross-border operations, resulting in the large-scale joint anti-terrorism operations have been put on hold. In addition, the anti-terrorism joint military exercise originally to be conducted by the international anti-terrorism coalition forces with a number of countries was forced to be canceled.

It goes without saying that terrorism, like novel coronavirus, knows no boundaries and has an impact on all countries. (to be continued)

Coordination of Chinese Consular Protection from the Perspective of Chinas Evacuation from Libya
Zhang Dandan/Sun Degang

Due to the limitations of China's weak overall national strength, the limited countries that have established diplomatic relations, and insurficient diplomatic resources, there are few Chinese people going abroad. From 1949 to 1978, the total number of outbound Chinese mainland residents was only 280000, with an annual average of 10,000. Since reform and opening up, exchanges between China and the outside world have become increasingly frequent. The Middle East has become an important destination for Chinese tourism, pilgrims, business, overseas contracting and studying abroad. There are nearly 1 million Chinese nationals in the Middle East. With the rise of China's comprehensive strength, the change of national identity and the improvement of international status, the economic, trade and people-to-people exchanges between China and Middle East countries are getting closer and closer, and consular protection has become a new task of China's diplomacy.

Based on the case study of the evacuation of overseas Chinese in Libya in 2011, this paper examines the operation mode of China's consular protection mechanism in the Middle East. The evacuation of overseas Chinese reflects the superiority of China's system. At the same time, there are some shortcomings in China's consular protection mechanism, such as "insufficient prevention, emphasis on emergency" and so on. In the future, Chinese consular protection should pay attention to the construction of the normal mechanism of consular protection, deal with overseas emergencies with fine consular early warning, and increase the participation of enterprises and non-governmental organizations in consular protection emergencies, improve the international coordination mechanism and aftermath mechanism of consular protection. The evacuation in Libya has also exposed many practical problems facing China after the evacuation, such as the protection of overseas assets after emergency evacuation, the job placement of a large number of workers who have been evacuated, as well as the follow-up settlement of outstanding overseas projects and investment projects. The current consular protection focuses on protecting the lives of overseas citizens. How to effectively improve the ability to deal with the aftermath of consular protection is an issue that China need to further explore.

In order to build a "grand consular" protection pattern and a consular protection system in the Middle East, China should build an overseas security co-construction platform with embassies and consulates abroad as the fulcrum, large state-owned enterprises as the bridgehead and non-governmental forces as the auxiliary. China should strengthen the transnational security cooperation mechanism with Middle Eastern countries, implement China's new security philosophy, and create a security environment conducive to the construction of China's overseas livelihood projects. After COVID-19 raging around the world in 2020, the Chinese government sent chartered flights to receive overseas Chinese from Thailand, Malaysia, Japan, Iran and other countries, and made plans for the evacuation of overseas Chinese from the Middle East and other countries in the light of the development of the epidemic in various countries. Probing into the case of China's evacuation of overseas Chinese from Libya ten years ago is of great practical significance for China to carry out anti-epidemic diplomacy and strengthen the construction of an overall consular protection system in the new era.

A Rethink of Islams Relations with the West from the Middle Ages to Modern Times
Liu Zhongmin

To some extent, the relationship between the contemporary Islamic world and the West is a historical continuation of the relationship between Islamic civilization and Western Christian civilization since the Middle Ages. In the history of conflict and integration between Islamic civilization and western civilization, whether western countries or Islamic countries, the historical memory of both sides seems to be dominated by conflict and confrontation rather than communication and integration. No matter between the two civilizations or within the two civilizations, the concept of "clash of civilizations" has always been superior to the idea of "dialogue among civilizations", so that the complex history of the relationship between Islam and the West is simply reduced to a history of conflict. and imperceptibly dominates both sides' negative cognition of each other and pessimistic judgment of the future relationship.

Objectively speaking, conflict does constitute an important aspect of the relationship between Islam and the West. From the Western Expedition of the medieval Arab Empire to the Crusade of Christianity, from the invasion and carving up of the Islamic world by modern Western powers to the constant bad relations between the two sides after World War II, from Islamism with strong anti-Western tendencies to the rampant "clash of civilizations" and "Islamic threat" in the West, to the prevalence of anti-Americanism in the Islamic world after 9/11 and the hostility of Western neoconservatism towards Islamic civilization, both make the conflict and confrontation between the two sides have a strong religious and cultural color. However, whether in the Middle Ages or in modern times, the exchange and integration of the two civilizations also constitute an important part of the relationship between the two sides. Today, there is also a rational voice of "dialogue among civilizations" within the two civilizations. Therefore, it is undoubtedly a complex and arduous task to go beyond the "theory of conflict of civilization", objectively and rationally look at the complex relationship between Islam and the West, and objectively evaluate the role of Islamic factors in the relationship between the two sides.

In the view of many studies, especially in the West, the Middle Ages and modern times respectively represented the periods when Islam and the West were in a dominant position in the history of bilateral relations, and played a very important role in shaping the historical memories of both sides. In other words, the Middle Ages was a period when Islam attacked and squeezed the West and filled the West with shame, while modern times were the period when the West conquered and colonized the Islamic world and humiliated the Islamic world, thus shaped the historical memories of hostility and hostility between the two sides. For example, in his works such as the study of History and the Test of Civilization, the British historian Arnold Toynbee interprets the conflicting relationship between Islam and the West from his theory “challenge and response”. On the other hand, the Middle East experts such as Bernard Lewis, Martin Kramer and Daniel Pepps simply discuss the relationship between Islamic civilization and western civilization from the perspective of conflict, and even think that Islamic civilization and western civilization are naturally in a state of confrontation. There is a similar cognition in the Islamic world, especially the strong anti-western tendency of Islamism (Islamic fundamentalism) since modern times. In the view of Islamist thinkers, the West is not only the driving force behind the misguided Islamic civilization, but also the chief culprit that makes the Islamic civilization fall into the abyss. 

However, history is not so simple. Although conflict is an important part of the relationship between Islam and the West, conflict is only a part of the civilized exchanges between the two sides. Mutual communication, absorption and learning are also an important part of the exchanges between the two civilizations. Objectively speaking, it is not difficult to achieve this understanding, but what is puzzling is that in reality, the relationship between Islam and the West is still evolving in the direction of "demonizing" each other and constantly accumulating hatred. Therefore, both Islam and the West, the main body of the exchanges between the two civilizations, or the outside world, should get rid of the habit of looking at the relationship between the two sides from a single perspective of conflict, and objectively reexamine the relationship between Islamic countries in the Middle East and the West and shape the relationship of civilized exchanges with the theme of forgiveness, tolerance and cooperation. This is also the main purpose of this paper to re-understand the relationship between Islam and the West from the Middle Ages to modern times.

The Content and Significance of Six Assurances of the US
Qiu Shi

In August 1982, after China and the United States signed the third communique, in official statements on various occasions, US government officials have always stressed that the three China-U.S. Joint Communiques, the "Taiwan Relations Act" and the "Six Assurances" constitute the basis of the US "one-China policy." The "Taiwan Relations Act" and the "Six Assurances" to Taiwan are also the cornerstones of US policy toward Taiwan that US officials have repeatedly insisted. Each US president after taking the oath of office reiterates the "Six Assurances" to the Taiwan authorities. However, what is unusual is that the "Six Assurances" emphasized in the basic proposition of the US Government's China policy do not exist in the form of official documents. The reality is that the "Six Assurances" to Taiwan as the basic US policy toward Taiwan exist only in the form of "verbal commitments." There is no official version of what is the specific content of the guarantee, and various versions of expressions emerge one after another. This phenomenon is a concrete manifestation of the "strategic ambiguity" policy toward Taiwan pursued by the United States, and fuzziness is one of the important attributes of the US policy toward China, and this vague nature makes it easier to deal with the Taiwan issue in U.S.-China relations.

Although the declassification of the archives of the Reagan Presidential Library already has the conditions to uncover the mysterious veil of the "Six Assurances", unlike the newly declassified "Reagan Memorandum" concerning arms sales to Taiwan, the original of the "Six Assurances" to Taiwan has not yet been made public. Before the US Congress passed Joint Resolution No. 88 in 2016, the "Six Assurances" to Taiwan, as the most executive verbal commitment, did not exist as an official document, and the original was not shown. The "Six Assurances" are conveyed verbally, deliberately hidden in government documents, and the communication process is also highly confidential, so the text of the "Six Assurances" is still controversial. Taipei and Washington have a very different understanding of the "Six Assurances". At present, there are three texts of the "Six Assurances": the version of Taiwan's "Ministry of Foreign Affairs"; the version of He Zhili; and the version of Qian Fu. These three versions are consistent except for different assurances on the issue of "Taiwan sovereignty." Since the "assurances" is a commitment made by the US Government to the Taiwan authorities, this article is based on the official version of the United States.

I. The Content and Essence of the "Six Assurances" of the United States to Taiwan.

II. The Debate on the "Six Assurances" in the United States.

III. The Process of Legislating the "Six Assurances" to Taiwan

Motivation and Prospect of Taiwan upon Seeking to Join the WHO
Chen Yiyuan

At present, COVID-19 is raging all over the world, and the global fight against COVID-19 is on the way. As the guidance and coordination agency for health issues within the United Nations system, the World Health Organization (WHO) has become the backbone of coordinating countries in the fight against Ebola, and has become the most affected international organization in the world. Taiwan has also seized the opportunity to politicize the issue of member states of the World Health Organization through the epidemic with the support of the United States, "taking advantage of the epidemic to join WHO and seek independence from the epidemic" has become the main content that it has stirred up trouble in the international community for some time.

As the highest decision-making body of the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Health Assembly (WHA) is composed of representatives of sovereign countries. However, because of the global public health nature of the World Health Organization, Taiwan, as a region, can participate in the activities and agenda of the World Health Organization, while its official representatives cannot attend the World Health Assembly. As a matter of fact, Taiwan, which is not a member of WHO, can still enjoy the benefits of WHO, and there is no so-called "international epidemic prevention gap". The World Health Organization has always adhered to the principle of "one China" and refused to allow Taiwan to participate in relevant meetings, emphasizing the membership of WHO is determined by member countries.

The United States is an active promoter of Taiwan's seeking to join WHO: first of all, the US government promotes Taiwan's participation in the World Health Assembly. Second, the US Congress and legislatures will continue to support Taiwan in expanding its international influence. Third, borrowing the strength of foreign influence and exploiting the epidemic, Taiwan have substantially improved its relations with the United States. Fourth, the United States supports Taiwan's participation in WHO in order to weaken China's influence in World Health Organization.

At present, joining the World Health Organization has become a priority path for the Tsai ing-wen authorities to expand their international living space, in a vain attempt to create the fact of "splitting China." The Taiwan authorities’ attempt to fish for independence in the epidemic will bring greater challenges to cross-strait relations.

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