To Solve the Dispute Properly and Avoid the Outbreak of Trade War

Li Changjiu

The US President Donald Trump officially announced on March 8, 2018 that he would impose tariffs of 25% on steel imports and 10% on aluminum products. Relevant international institutions and countries have unanimously expressed the need to properly resolve disputes and avoid the outbreak of a trade war.

A Trade War seriously harms world trade and economy.

Many authoritative organizations, experts and scholars have come to the conclusion that the United States will provoke a comprehensive trade war, which will seriously harm world trade and the world economy.

A Trade War provoked by the US is not only at the expense of others but also harms itself.

A growing number of insightful people in the United States are opposing the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products, recognizing that it is both damaging to others and self-defeating for the United States to wage a full-scale trade war.

Why do more and more discerning people in the United States oppose the Trump administration's initiation of a global trade war?

First, the United States traded paper money for global goods.

Second, the United States hypes dollars to make excess profits.

Third, trade liberalization has brought huge benefits to the United States.

In a short span of two months, the official authoritative report of the United States has focused its attacks on China and regarded China as a "strategic competitor" and a major challenge.This is unprecedented in the nearly 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States. We must have a long-term plan, a comprehensive layout, and a strong response.

First, we should define the position of China and the United States in the World in a practical and realistic way.

Second, we should not seek to replace the role of the United States in the international arena and never seek hegemony.

Third, we should firmly deal with the disputes and fractions caused by the United States.

(I) On the issue of China's holdings of United States treasury bonds

(II) Diversifying imports of agricultural products

(III) Reducing imports of high-end products, such as large aircraft, from the United States

(IV) The steady development of Sino-US economic and trade relations conforms to the interests of the two countries

(V) Resolutely opposing the signing of the Taiwan Relations Act by the United States

To Promote Chinese Diplomatic Strategy in the New Era

Liu Jianfei

In the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the concept of "a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics" is used to define the new historical orientation of China's development. In the new era, the Communist Party of China will lead the Chinese people to embark on a new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way on the basis of a decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and it is expected that modernization of China will be basically achieved by 2035. By 2050, we will become a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful. At the same time, we should accomplish the two historical tasks of reunifying the motherland, safeguarding world peace and promoting common development. As far as the current situation is concerned, there are five outstanding problems, namely, Sino-US relations, Sino-Japanese relations, Sino-Indian relations, the North Korean nuclear issue, and the South China Sea issue. They involve relations between major powers, neighboring countries, relations with developing countries and multilateral diplomacy. They also have an impact on global governance and "Belt and Road". These five difficulties are intertwined and difficult to solve, and therefore have become hot issues that deserve the close attention of the international community. They are also of vital importance to the implementation of China's diplomatic strategy in the new era.

I. Guard against the "two traps" in Sino-US Relations.

Sino-US relations have always been the most fundamental and overall link affecting China's external environment. The state of Sino-US relations has a direct impact on China's overall external environment, as well as other four issues.

II. Timely improvement of Sino-Japanese Relations.

As a close neighbor of China and the world's third largest economy, the handling of Sino-Japanese relations is of great significance in promoting China's neighboring diplomacy. There are two logics in Sino-Japanese relations, which need to be taken into account in an all-round way.

III. Stable Development of Sino-Indian Relations.

India is China's neighbor and one of the only two countries in the world with a population of more than 1 billion. It is a member of the BRICS countries, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Group of Twenty (G20). International observers are very optimistic about India's development prospects. From the perspective of India's talent and current development trend, it is inevitable for India to become a world-class major country. In the strategic layout of China's diplomacy, the diplomacy towards India is not only the diplomacy of neighboring countries, but also the diplomacy of great countries.

IV. Actively promoting the cooling of the DPRK Nuclear issue.

The North Korean nuclear issue has been a hot spot in the world for nearly 10 years, and it is a sensitive issue affecting the security of Northeast Asia. The DPRK nuclear issue mainly involves Sino-DPRK relations, Sino-US relations and Sino-ROK relations. Although Russia and Japan are also stakeholders in the North Korean nuclear issue, their relations with China is less impacted.

V. Seize the opportunity to promote the settlement of the South China Sea issue.

The issue of the South China Sea has heated up during the Obama administration, and has become a hot issue around the world. To a large extent, it is related to the implementation of the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing Strategy" by the United States.

To Open New Expenditure of Chinese Economic Modernization in a Comprehensive Way

Yang Yiyong

As we all know, the modernization of the world can be divided into two stages: the first stage being the transformation from the agricultural society to the industrial society, the agricultural economy to the industrial economy, and the agricultural civilization to the industrial civilization; the second stage being the transformation from the industrial society to the knowledge society, the industrial economy to the knowledge economy, the industrial civilization to the knowledge civilization, and the material civilization to the ecological civilization. From the founding of the People's Republic of China to 2012, China completed the first stage task of modernization, with the added value of the primary industry accounted for 10.1% of GDP, that of the secondary industry 45.3%, and that of the tertiary industry 44.6%. At the end of 2001, the total population of the mainland (including 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government and active servicemen of the Chinese people's Liberation Army), excluding the number of overseas Chinese in the Hong Kong, Macao Special Administrative regions and Taiwan Province and overseas Chinese, the number of overseas Chinese was 1.35 billion, of which 711.82 million were urban residents, accounting for 52.6% of the total population. And thus China launched the new process of the second stage of modernization. By 2017, the added value of the three industries accounted for 7.9%, 40.5%, and 51.6% of GDP respectively, and the total population of Chinese mainland was 1.39 billion at the end of the year. The urbanization rate of the population reached 58.52%. Looking forward to 2050, the proportion of China's tertiary industry in value added is likely to reach 70%, and the rate of urbanization of the population may reach 75%.

Economic modernization is an important part of socialist modernization. Without economic modernization, there can be no prosperous and powerful modern socialist country.

I. Pushing forward economic modernization is a systematic project.

II. The fundamental goal of promoting economic modernization is to achieve common prosperity and a strong country.

III. Deepening supply-side structural reforms to modernize the economy.

IV. Building an innovative country is an important prerequisite for promoting Economic Modernization.

V. To make up for the deficiency of economic modernization, we must implement the strategy of rural revitalization.

VI. Implementing the strategy of regional coordinated development is a must to promote economic modernization in a balanced way.

VII. Speeding up the improvement of the socialist market economic system is the institutional guarantee for the realization of economic modernization.

VIII. To promoting economic modernization in an all-round way, we must accelerate the formation of a new pattern of all-round opening up.

IX. To realize economic modernization, we must constantly improve the quality of employment and the level of people's income.

X. Concluding remarks.

There is no end in any form of modernization. Economic modernization is a social and historical process, which cannot be fostered by human intention and can only be guided according to the reality.

To Fulfill People’s Sense of Gain, Happiness and Security

Fei Xiang

In his report to the 19th CPC National Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping said: "The fundamental interests of the majority of the people must be the highest standard in all the Party's work. We will continue to treat the minor issues of the people as our major issues, start with what the people care about, do what satisfies the people, and lead the people in creating a better life". Leading the people to create a better life is the unswerving goal of our party. We must always give primacy to the interests of the people, make the fruits of reform and development more and more equitable for the benefit of all, and continue to move forward towards achieving common prosperity for all.

"The rule of law in the world lies in the wealthiness of the people, and peace in the world lies in the music of the people." To ensure and improve people's well-being, we must grasp the issues of the people's most immediate and most realistic interests; do what we can and do according to our ability; do one thing after another and do it year after year. We must adhere to the bottom line, highlight priorities, improve the system and guide expectations, improve the public service system, ensure the basic livelihood of the people, and constantly meet the growing needs of the people for a better life. We will continue to promote social equity and justice, develop effective social governance and good social order, and make the people feel better, happier, more secure and more sustainable.

I. How to further enhance people’s sense of obtainment.

First, we will continue to improve the quality of employment and the income level of the people.

Second, we must resolutely win the battle against poverty.

II. How to further enhance people’s sense of happiness.

First, we must give priority to the development of education.

Second, we will strengthen the development of the social security system.

Third, we will implement the Healthy China Strategy.

III. How to further enhance people’s sense of security.

First, we need to build a pattern of social governance based on joint construction, co-governance, and shared benefits.

Second, we must effectively safeguard national security.

To sum up, the initial intention of the Chinese Communists is to seek happiness for the people and rejuvenation for the nation. It is one of the important missions for building socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era to ensure and improve people's well-being and constantly improve people's sense of happiness and of security. In his 2018 New Year address, President Xi Jinping said, "I understand that the people's most important concerns are education, employment, income, social security, medical care, old-age care, housing, and the environment. There is also a lot of trouble. There are still many unsatisfactory aspects of our work, which requires us to enhance our sense of mission and sense of responsibility, and really do a good job in what is good for the benefit of the people. Party committees, governments, and cadres at all levels should keep the safety and well-being of the people in mind at all times, regard the welfare of the people as their greatest achievement, think of what the masses think, be anxious about what the masses are anxious about, and make the people's lives happier and more satisfactory. "not only is it full of strong feelings for people's livelihood, but it also conveys the CPC's commitment to ensuring and improving people's well-being and its determination to do a good job in ensuring and improving people's well-being.

Problems and Solutions to Financial Support for Poverty Alleviation

Wang Yuanlong

On February 12, 2018, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at the Forum on Targeted Poverty Alleviation that poverty alleviation is one of the three tough battles put forward by the 19th CPC National Congress. It is necessary to have a clear understanding of the arduous tasks facing us in winning the battle to combat poverty, as well as the prominent problems in practice and the urgency of solving them, and make solid progress in a down-to-earth manner. Financial support for poverty alleviation plays a more and more important role in the battle of poverty alleviation. This paper discusses some problems worthy of attention in the process, how to build a long-term mechanism of financial poverty alleviation, and how to give full play to the mechanism.

I. Some issues deserving attention in financial poverty alleviation.

At present, the difficulties and challenges of poverty alleviation in our country are still huge, and there are some problems that should be paid attention to and need to be solved in financial poverty alleviation.

(I) The financial support for poverty alleviation in rural areas needs to be improved.

(II) There are more and more risks of information asymmetry in financial poverty alleviation.

(III) The long-term mechanism of financial poverty alleviation has not been established.

(IV) The task of financial poverty alleviation is arduous.

II. Building a long-term mechanism for financial poverty alleviation.

The key to build a long-term financial poverty alleviation mechanism is to ensure the sustainability of financial poverty alleviation, improve the financial poverty alleviation risk prevention and control mechanism, and cultivate the development ability of poverty alleviation.

III. All-round support for financial poverty alleviation.

At present, China has entered the decisive period of poverty alleviation, and at this stage, it is necessary to continue to take precise poverty alleviation as the goal. We should take the realization of the three major goals of "serving the real economy, preventing and transforming financial risks, and reforming and innovating development" as a driving force, and further enhance the ability and level of doing a good job in financial poverty alleviation.

(I) Strengthening financial policy support.

(II) Improving the rural financial system.

(III) Improving the quantity and quality of financial supply.

(IV) Financial Innovation to support Rural Revitalization.

(V) Provision of diversified financial products.

(VI) Strengthening support for the financial industry.

(VII) Strengthening financial talent support.

The Five Characteristics of “China Threat Theory”

Yu Sui

After the 19th CPC National Congress formulated its future development strategy, the "China Threat Theory" of the West has once again pervaded. The 13th National people's Congress has embodied the spirit of the 19th CPC National Congress, and its domestic and foreign policies are full of peaceful development atmosphere, which is enough to make the "China Threat Theory" humiliate. At the press conference, Foreign Minister Wang Yi talked freely about major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in the new era and solemnly refuted the "China Threat Theory". 
What is the "China Threat Theory"? And where did it come from? I think it has five characteristics. 
First, hypocrisy. The "China Threat Theory" is a fallacy that has been coined as China's economy continues to grow at a high speed, China's development model has shown great success, and the exaggerated "China's rise" and the "power strategy" have aroused hostility or misgivings from the outside world. 
Second, paroxysmal. Since the founding of new China, spreading the theory of "China threat" can be said to be a normal state. However, with the development of the international situation and the change of the attackers' mentality, they often fluctuate from time to time. 
Third, the root of inferiority. People who fabricate and disseminate the "China threat Theory" come from different backgrounds. Most of the instigators are out of arrogance and bravado. 
Fourth, bewilderment. The West has a powerful tool of public opinion, and its inciting effect is not trivial. The "China Threat Theory" can indeed confuse some people who have traditional prejudices against China, especially those who do not know the truth. 
Fifth, vulnerability. After all, the "China threat Theory" can not stand the test of time, the fundamental reason is that it is divorced from the reality of China, contrary to the logic of things. 
"China Threat Theory " and "China Collapse Theory" are two sides of an organic whole. If it is said that the theory of "China Collapse" has become the laughing stock of the international community, then the "China Threat Theory" will sooner or later be rejected by fair international public opinion.

Hard Expendition to Revival--from Putin’s 2018 State of the Union Address

Ding Yuanhong

On March 1, President Putin delivered his last State of the Union Message in his current term of office for nearly two hours, the longest ever. Putin stressed that this address has a "special nature". He summed up Russia's achievements in internal affairs, foreign affairs, and national defense in the past few years, and focused on the goals and tasks of social and economic development, national defense and international security in the next six years. He said the next six years will be decisive for Russia's development. Since there is no doubt that Putin will win the presidential election in Russia on March 18, this State of the Union address is actually Putin's policy agenda for the next presidential term.

The key to Putin's ability to revive Russia's "status as a world power" in 20 years lies in his insistence on pursuing a domestic and foreign policy that conforms to Russia's national conditions. To sum up, there are three points:

First, he sticks to Russia's own path. Putin's State of the Union address, delivered at the beginning of his third term and on Russian Constitution Day on December 12, 2012, focused on the national spirit of Russia, all of which were putting Russia, once lost, back on the right track of its own path. Because of this, Russia has been able to withstand pressure from all sides, serve all kinds of difficulties, and achieve what it has achieved today.

Second, he insists on safeguarding national unity and stability. In the face of the impact caused by the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the continuous interference of external forces, maintaining political stability and national unity is particularly critical to economic development and national security.

Third, he insists on pursuing development and ensuring security in accordance with Russia’s national conditions. Russia has a vast territory and its development is extremely uneven. The status of Siberia and Arctic region are relatively backward and need to be developed urgently.

Russia has a vast territory and a long border, and its national defense and security tasks are particularly arduous. It is of great importance for Russia to build up a strong military force and to continuously push forward the modernization of armaments. The reality has fully shown that having a strength comparable to that of the United States is a trump card for Russia to revive its "status as a world power". The shock this State of the Union address has caused in the West is a clear evidence.

Although Russia will still encounter many challenges in carrying out the various tasks put forward by Putin in his State of the Union address, from the practice of the past 10 years, it can be hoped that Russia can achieve the reinvigoration of its "status as a world power". This will have a great impact on the changing security situation in the world. The evolution of the domestic and international situation in Russia deserves our close attention.

The Spread of Nationalism in Europe

Ding Yuanhong

March 4 was called a "Super Sunday" by Western media because of two voter turnouts about the future of Europe, which drew a lot of attention in Europe.

After last year's general election in Austria, "Super Sunday" once again showed that the anti-immigration, anti-integration, or anti-elite, anti-establishment ideological trend continues to spread in Europe, which is unstoppable.

This trend of thought, known as "populism", is in fact right-leaning conservative nationalism. Its rise is not only related to the political and economic situation in Europe, but also due to the inherent contradictions of integration itself.

First, for a long time, center-left or center-right political parties to take turns in power in the European countries. In the 1990s, the progress of European integration was smooth, the economic situation of various countries was good, the centre-left Socialist Party and the Social Democratic Party were once in power in 13 of the 15 EU member States, and the French National Front, which holds the right-wing, was regarded to be useless. There's no climate. However, entering the new century, especially under the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008, the EU economy starts to decline, and the EU members are suffering from debt crisis. And the massive influx of refugees and terrorist attacks that followed led to great dissatisfaction among the grassroots and some of the middle class, whose standard of living declined.

Second, the EU is the crystallization of European integration, established on the basis of the principle of "transfer of sovereignty" or "sovereignty sharing". However, the EU is still composed of nation-states, and its member states have their own inviolable sovereignty, which is also an internationally recognized basic norm in international relations.

At present, the EU is full of contradictions and disputes; people have lost confidence for the government; nationalist ideologies spread internally; externally, it is facing worsening tension between the two sides of the Atlantic; in the economic and technological level, it is facing competition from emerging economies. The future of EU integration is indeed in jeopardy as it is beset by difficulties both at home and abroad.

Study on the Influence Mechanism of Population Mobility in the Perspective of Urban Administrative Hierarchy

Huang Yanfen/Zhang Chao

I. Introduction

At present, socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, and the principal social contradiction in our country has been transformed into a contradiction between the growing needs of the people for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. One of the prominent manifestations is the imbalance of development between regions and cities.

For the influence mechanism of population mobility in China, the existing research mainly focus on the benefits and cost of mobility. From the perspective of mobility benefits, the industrial structure, employment opportunities, income level, quality of life and so on, all have pull on the floating population. From the perspective of mobility costs, property taxes are generally considered to be the most direct consideration for urban dwellers in Western countries. However, China has not yet levied a real estate tax on urban dwellings (except Chongqing and Shanghai), so domestic scholars often focus on the empirical analysis of the relationship between housing prices and population mobility, but there are still some differences. For example, Li Tuo and Li Bin (2015) believe that housing prices have a negative impact on population mobility, while Bai Jixing, Zhou Jingkui and others (2016) believe that there is an inverted "U" relationship between population mobility and urban housing prices.

II. Theoretical basis and hypothesis

China, as a developing country with a single system, is currently transforming from the traditional planned economy to the modern market economy. Although the reform direction of "letting the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources" is very clear, there are still many areas restricted by administrative factors in the process of urban development. As a specific sign of urban political and economic status, administrative level not only has a direct impact on population mobility, but also to a certain extent restricts on the role that public services, commercial housing prices and other market-oriented factors play on population mobility.

(I) Urban administrative hierarchy and population mobility

(II) Urban public services and population mobility

(III) Real estate tax, house prices and population mobility

(IV) "Vote by foot" mechanism under the urban administrative hierarchy system

III. Model setting and data sources

(I) Model setting

On the basis of theoretical analysis, in order to test hypothesis 1, hypothesis 2 and hypothesis 3, and considering the inertia of population flow, that is, the scale of the past population movement in a city having an impact on the scale of the current population shift (Yang Xiaojun, 2017), this paper constructs a dynamic panel model which includes the explanatory variables such as the level of urban administration, the level of urban public service and the level of commodity housing price.

(II) Meaning of variables and sources of data

1. Urban floating population

2. Urban public service

3. Urban commercial housing price

4. Urban administrative hierarchy

5. Control variable

IV. Analysis of empirical results

Model 1 uses simple OLS regression. The result shows that all the variables are not significant except the dependent variable of lag period, and the coefficient sign of the price variable of commercial housing and the unemployment rate of labor market is positive, and the coefficient sign of the variable coefficient of GDP per capita is negative. This is clearly contrary to economic theory and objective reality, indicating that the use of OLS regression estimates are biased. At the same time, it is found that the VIF value of per capita GDP variable is higher after verification, which is one of the reasons for the estimation bias.

V. Conclusions and discussion

First, as an intuitive indicator of the political and economic status of Chinese cities, the level of urban administration has a profound impact on the direction of population flow in China, and at the same time restricts the role of market-oriented mechanism in the flow of population between cities.

Second, the level of urban public service has a significant positive impact on the number of floating population.

Third, the price of urban commercial housing has a significant negative impact on the number of floating population.

Fourth, there is obvious inertia in the movement of population between cities.

VI. Policy recommendations

From the perspective of the level of urban administration, this paper studies the mechanism of the impact of population mobility in China, and concludes that the urban government should start from the following aspects to improve the quality of urban development.

First of all, we should further deepen the reform of the administrative system, optimize the establishment of administrative levels, and gradually weaken the role of administrative levels in urban governance.

Second, it is suggested that the quality of public services should be equalized to narrow the gap of public services between different administrative levels of cities, so as to avoid excessive concentration of floating population to large cities.

Finally, different administrative levels of the city should formulate different real estate regulatory policies according to the local capacity.

The Development, Change, Turning and New Trend of Economic and Trade Relations between the Two Sides of the Taiwan Strait in Recent Years

Wang Jianmin

In recent years, while cross-strait economic relations and cross-strait economic cooperation have achieved important development, the pattern of cross-strait economic and trade relations has also taken an important turn and seen new changes. After the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power, the economic cooperation mechanism dominated by public power on both sides of the Strait was interrupted, and cross-strait non-governmental economic exchanges and cooperation became the leading force. And  certain development trend still remained, with some new characteristics appeared.

I. Important changes in the situation and mechanism of economic cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits.

II. Changes in the pattern of trade and investment between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits.

(1) The development of cross-strait trade is fluctuating.

(2) Mutual investment between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits shows a state of serious asymmetrical development.

III. New characteristics and new trends in the development of cross-strait economic and trade cooperation.

Despite the deadlock in cross-strait relations and the cross-strait political confrontation, cross-strait non-governmental economic exchanges and cooperation are still developing continuously, making important progress, and showing some new characteristics and trends.

(1) Economic integration and development between the two sides of the Strait has become an important new concept and new direction for cross-strait economic exchanges and cooperation.

(2) Market forces remain an important driving force for maintaining and promoting economic exchanges and exchanges between the two sides of the Straits.

(3) Well-known enterprises in Taiwan continue to strengthen cooperation with local governments in the mainland to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.

(4) continuous innovation and development in the modes of cooperation between enterprises on both sides of the Straits. Under the pressure of survival and development, Taiwan's business community has been hampered by setbacks in cross-strait economic cooperation dominated by public power. They continue to develop new forms of economic cooperation with mainland enterprises, including mutual investment, cross-shareholding and corporate identity conversion.

(5) Cross-strait financial cooperation has experienced a tortuous development process from a serious lag to a rapid development and then to a slowdown.

(6) Tourism exchanges between the two sides of the strait have changed from one-way to two-way, especially when mainland people travel to Taiwan in a short period of time, there has been a process of opening up, rapid growth, and contraction.

(7) It has become a new trend for Taiwan's youth to go to the mainland for employment and entrepreneurship and for Taiwan's talents to advance westward. Relevant departments and localities have given a lot of preferential policy support, coupled with the dual influence of the Taiwan island's economic development environment and stagnant wages. The mainland continued to expand the establishment of cross-strait youth entrepreneurship demonstration parks or Taiwan youth employment and entrepreneurship bases.