The Arrival of New Chinese Time and Space

Yang Yiyong

On October 18th, 2017, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was successfully convened. On behalf of the 18th CPC Central Committee, Xi Jinping delivered a report entitled "Secure a Decisive Victory in Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Strive for the Great Success of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era". The theme of the Congress is to "remain true to our original aspiration and keep our mission firmly in mind, hold high the banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics, secure a decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, strive for the great success of socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era, and work tirelessly to realize the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation." Xi Jinping's report to the Congress on behalf of the 18th CPC Central Committee is divided into 13 parts: I.The Past Five Years: Our Work and Historic Change; II.The New Era: The Historic Mission of the Communist Party of China; III.The Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and the Basic Policy; IV. Securing a Decisive Victory in Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Embarking on a Journey to Fully Build a Modern Socialist China; V. Applying a New Vision of Development and Developing a Modernized Economy; VI. Improving the System of Institutions through Which the People Run the Country and Developing Socialist Democracy; VII. Building Stronger Cultural Confidence and Helping Socialist Culture to Flourish; VIII. Growing Better at Ensuring and Improving People’s Well-being and Strengthening and Developing New Approaches to Social Governance; IX. Speeding up Reform of the System for Developing an Ecological Civilization, and Building a Beautiful China; X.Staying Committed to the Chinese Path of Building Strong Armed Forces and Fully Advancing the Modernization of National Defense and the Military; XI. Upholding "One Country, Two Systems" and Moving toward National Reunification; XII. Following a Path of Peaceful Development and Working to Build a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind; XIII. Exercising Strict Governance over the Party and Improving the Party's Ability to Govern and Lead.

After watching live TV, I felt strongly that a new Chinese space-time had arrived, marking the new stage of construction of socialism with Chinese characteristics. The whole party will remain true to their original aspiration and keep their mission firmly in mind, hold high the banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics, firmly establish confidence in the path, theory, system, and culture of socialism with Chinese characteristics, so as to forge ahead and create constantly. We must ensure that the cause of the party and the state always advance victoriously in the right direction and constantly create new victories of socialism with Chinese characteristics.

1. This is a new era.

In spite of the turmoil in the world, China is not only outshone, but also has a new spirit to step forward from scratch. After building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, China should focus on realizing socialist modernization on the whole and make firm progress toward the goal of the nation’s great rejuvenation.

2. This is a strong China.

In less than 100 years, China has achieved prosperity and strength with a population of more than one billion, which was once a disastrous country with hundreds of millions of people. China's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 amounted to US $11.2 trillion, accounting for 14.8% of the world's total economy, 3.4 percentage points higher than in 2012, and it is the second largest economy in the world.

3. This is a group of industrious people.

The people are the true heroes of history. The Chinese people are the greatest people in the world. They have created the world with their labor, created human beings, and created our happy life today.

4. This is a great cause.

It is an unprecedented cause. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the great achievements since the reform and opening up have been superimposed on the great achievements of the CPC, which has made historic changes in the cause of our party and state, and the development of our country has now reached a new historical starting point. Socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new stage of development.

5. This is a capable political party.

The leadership of the CPC is the back bone in the Chinese people's struggle for national independence, prosperity and strength, as well as people's liberation and happiness.

6. There is a great leader here.

With firm will and keeping true to the original aspirations, he forges ahead and continues to write brilliant history. Xi Jinping's rich and complete experience in carrying out his duties has determined that his core competencies are characterized not only by his high position, solid foundation, and full of spirit, but also by his overall vision, grasp of the key, and forethought. It also determines that once Xi Jinping, who has great talent and strategies, stands in the center of the stage where his talent can be flourished, he will certainly be different and extraordinary, and will have a tremendous impact on the whole country and the world at large.

7. The blueprint has been drawn and the trumpet sounded.

The change of the appearance of a space needs years’ accumulation. The entire Party and the Chinese people of all ethnic groups, should rally closely around the Party Central Committee, and hold high the banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics. We should keep on working with great determination to accomplish the three historic tasks of advancing modernization, realizing China's reunification, and preserving world peace and promoting common development; we should secure a decisive victory in finishing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects, strive for the great success of socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era, realize the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation, and see that our people realize their aspirations for a better life.

Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and the Event of Global Party Conference

Yu Sui

I

For China, 2017 was year of promoting a community with a shared future for mankind, promoting the "Belt and Road" initiative, optimizing bilateral relations, promoting multilateral cooperation, improving the external environment, establishing a great image, and increasing international influence. In a word, it was a year for China to take the path of peaceful development and actively create a good external environment.

This article intends to make an illustration of China's diplomacy in the new era so as to interpret what General Secretary Xi Jinping called "an omni-directional, multi-level, and three-dimensional diplomatic layout".

Figure 1: The Diplomatic Thinking of Chinese Leaders. This can be observed in four ways.

Be diligent to explore.

Be good at planning.

Be courageous to advocate.

Be bold in taking responsibility.

Figure 2: The Situation of China's Diplomacy. China is committed to expanding the convergence of interests with other countries, focusing on four major areas of diplomacy.

To handle the relations with major powers.

To improve the surrounding environment.

To strengthen the relations with developing countries.

To cope with regional hot spots.

Figure 3: The New Era of China’s Diplomacy. This is presented from different perspectives.

Be confident, rather than pride and aloof.

Be entrepreneurial, rather than threatening.

Be competitive, rather than fighting.

Be tolerant, rather than weak.

II

As a major achievement of diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in the new era, the world-renowned high-level dialogue between the CPC and the world's political parties, themed by "Building a community with a shared future for mankind and jointly building a better world: the responsibility of political parties", was successfully held in Beijing from November 30th to December 3rd, 2017. About 600 representatives from China and abroad, including leaders of nearly 300 political parties and political organizations from more than 120 countries, attended the meeting. On the basis of the guidance of General Secretary Xi Jinping's keynote speech and the heated discussions among the participants, the Beijing Initiative was adopted with consensus. This grand gathering, unprecedented in the relations between the CPC and the world's political parties, was full of new ideas and features.

First, the charisma of building a community with a shared future for mankind.

Second, the cohesion of the win-win spirit of peace, development and cooperation.

Third, the attraction of the diplomacy with Chinese characteristics of the new era.

Fourth, the shock of China's enhancing international prestige.

Fifth, the vitality of the four principles of inter-party relations.

The Beijing Initiative confirms this assertion, pointing out that governments, political parties, parliaments, social organizations and citizens should all play an active role in promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind and the building of a better world. As the basic organization and important force of national political life, political parties play an important political leading role. The political parties of different countries should enhance mutual trust, strengthen communication and close cooperation, and explore the establishment of a new type of political party relationship based on seeking common ground while reserving differences, respecting each other, and learning from each other. Respect each other means mutual respect for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, respect for each other's choice of development path and values, and transcending differences in social systems, ideologies and cultural traditions. We should promote exchanges and cooperation between countries with a more open and inclusive attitude, taking into account the interests and legitimate concerns of other countries while pursuing our own interests.

The Top 10 News in 2017 in Our Eyes

Yang Chengxu/Wang Yusheng

I. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) formulated and planned major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics. It clearly stated that China's strategic goal is to promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind and to seek a new type of international relations featuring mutual respect, fairness and justice, and win-win cooperation.

In the face of international praise, China has always remained sober, with an awareness that China is still in the primary stage of socialism, is the largest developing country in the world, and has a long way to go, and that China has always fought against hegemony rather than fighting for hegemony. We advocate that all countries, large and small, should be equal, and that all countries should consult each other and jointly build and share in every situation.

II. In February, the main theme of the Munich Security Conference was "Post-Truth, Post-West, Post-order?" This was the first time that a Western-led international conference discussing such a problem, and it has triggered global thinking and heated discussion.

In fact, the topic itself reflects that "the process of quantitative change is accelerating and the balance of international power is changing historically", and it seems that we have reached a "tipping point" for a major transformation.

III. On January 20th, Trump, known as the "black swan" of the United States, entered the White House and began to implement the "New deal" with the theme of "America first."

The American "constructivism" and the game between the US media and Trump continue to ferment. The hegemony of "make America great again" and the spectre of the Cold War mentality still linger on Trump and his team. The influence of the arms dealers' pursuit of profits is too great to be overlooked. We still need to be calm and observe carefully where and how this "black swan" will fly, whether it is homeopathic or adverse, and where it will pass through.

IV. On October 18th, Secretary of State Tillerson referred for the first time to the concept of a "free and open Indian Pacific" at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. After that, the US government began to use the term "Indo-Pacific" instead of "Asia-Pacific".

V. On December 6th, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the US embassy to Jerusalem.

Now that the United States is passive in the Middle East, it is likely to be more passive and difficult to extricate itself in the future. This is neither the result of Trump's "big mouth", nor of his "randomness". Trump is not a simple person. He has a supporting team. There is a reason for his announcement of withdrawal from The Paris Agreement.

VI. In October, the Government of Iraq announced that the Islamic State had been completely expelled from Iraq and that Iraqi forces had taken full control of the border areas between Iraq and Syria. Subsequently, the Syrian Government announced that it had regained its lost territory and completely defeated the Islamic State, which had achieved significant results. However, counter-terrorism still has a long way to go and we should not be too optimistic.

VII. In mid-December, the Council of the European Union announced that twenty-five EU countries had reached a "permanent structural defense cooperation." In the future, they will work more closely on defense cooperation. At present, only three among the twenty-eight EU countries decided not to join the cooperation, namely the United Kingdom (which is leaving EU), Denmark and Malta (with a special "non-participation position") .

VIII. On November 12th, ASEAN celebrated its 50th anniversary in Manila. Philippine President Duterte said in his speech that under the guidance of the theme "embracing change and integrating into the world," the Philippines, holding ASEAN’s rotating presidency, would continue to coordinate the three pillars of the ASEAN community: strengthening economic integration, building common identity while maintaining their own uniqueness and diversity.

IX. On June 13, China established diplomatic relations with Panama.

X. Zimbabwe's ex-president Robert Mugabe stepped down and regime changed peacefully. On November 15th, Zimbabwe's military announced a takeover of the government, followed by a dramatic change in the domestic situation in Zimbabwe that tens of thousands of Zimbabweans staged a large-scale march to demand the resignation of Mugabe.

Static State and Dynamics in German Politics

Yuan Ze

I. The 19th election of the Bundestag was announced on September 24th, 2017. The election was like a "video game" with "no suspense": it was neither as fierce as the American Donkey vs Elephant, nor as thrilling as the French political opposition to the right wing. Angela Merkel's coalition party (CDU and CSU) is popular. Perhaps because the victory has been decided with confidence, on the night before the election, "the German people can hardly feel the desire for reform", "Mercer anchored her hope of being re-elected on the people's mentality of maintaining the present situation", which was just like a "sleeping pill".

It cannot be denied that the realization of the above-mentioned "minimum and maximum" indicators of employment and finance was achieved by former Chancellor Schroeder (Social Democratic Party) who began to enforce reform with great ambition in 2003. As an old saying goes, one generation plants the trees, another gets the shade. The achievement of reform paved the way for Merkel to stay on the golden road. In the face of the good economic and social situation and the unspooked and risk-free election, the German Economic Weekly exclaimed that Germans should "raise their vigilance, strive for change in stability, and promote reform at the best of socioeconomic conditions" -- the bottom line thinking includes a high line of pursuit. This could be the only highlight and excitement left by this dreary campaign.

II. In the election of the 19th Bundestag, the League Party won the election by a margin of more than 10 percentage points over the Social Democratic Party.

In other words, compared with the Social Democratic Party, which plays the role of "tiger mother", the CDU is more like a "cat dad". Meanwhile, Merkel's mood to "protect the calf" is too strong to require voters to sacrifice their own well-being for the country's sake and bear the brunt of reform. Therefore, whenever an election is held, Mercer always warns the public that only by keeping pace with economic globalization can Germany remain invincible; but when it comes to specific domestic reforms, she becomes too worry about gains and losses in fear that her votes will shrink and that she would lose power.

III. There is no suspense about the election, and it is difficult to form a cabinet. This is just like the evolution of the post-war political situation: relatively static, and absolutely dynamic; the change of governing partners and the constant combination of colors gave birth to the "red and green", "black and red", and "black and yellow" coalitions; various and colorful political combinations reflect both the extraordinary ability of political parties to cross the border and the voters' preference for stability.

Germany is expected to form a "grand coalition government" in early 2018. But will it be all right if the cabinet is successfully formed? A comment on Der Spiegel, a German weekly, argued on December 2nd that what binds the two parties together is not a common idea, but a fear of being ruthlessly abandoned by voters. It hit the nail on the head and pointed to the fragility of the next government. However, in the face of the accumulation of problems and difficulties in administration, isn’t it even more necessary for the two parties to "bend over" and work together in order to "avoid trouble"?

The US Economy is Undergoing a Stable and Healthy Recovery

Zhou Shijian

With the US economy recovering steadily in 2017, its GDP is expected to reach about 2.5%. But employment was not satisfactory, with the unemployment rate falling but the employment rate not yet returning to the level before the financial crisis. The growth of workers' income has been slow and the savings rate has risen, which affected the growth of domestic consumption. The US Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates and began to shrink the balance sheet. The passage by the House and Senate of Trump's tax reform plan will boost economic growth in the United States in 2018. But the huge national debt will restrict the economic development. Trump’s tax reform will not only drive some countries to lower tax rates, but also promote the development of the world economy.

I. A robust recovery in the U.S. economy

After the worst recession in the United States, the recovery began in 2010 and lasted seven years until 2016, with GDP growing at an average annual rate of 2.05%, remaining in a modest recovery and not returning to a boom of more than 3%. GDP grew by only 1.5% in 2016.

(1) The employment situation in the United States is divided in two.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in November, from 10.2% in October 2009, according to the US Department of Labor. This method of statistics leaves out the long-term unemployed and people who have lost confidence and are not registered, such as those over 45 years old who find it difficult to re-enter the job market once they lose their jobs. In 2007, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in November from 4.8% in January.

(2) The Federal Reserve raised interest rates and shrank its balance sheet.

On October 29th, 2014, the Fed stopped quantitative easing (QE) decisively. Interest rate increases were launched starting from 16 December 2015, and 25 basis points were increased each time on 14 December 2016, 7 March 2017, 14 June 2017 and 13 December 2017 respectively, raising the deposit interest rate from 0-0.25% by 1.25%-1.50%. Interest rates are expected to rise three times in 2018 to 2.0-2.25% by the end of 2018 and 3.0% by the end of 2019.

(3) The surge in the United States Treasury bill adds to the pressure on economic development.

A prominent problem in the current US economy is the surge in national debt. Since the beginning of the new century, the United States has launched two wars of aggression and responded to the financial crisis and economic recession, so the national debt has been growing at an unprecedented rate. During the 204 years from the founding of America to 1980, the United States Government issued a total of $907.7 billion in treasury bonds. In the 28 years from President Reagan in 1981 to President George W. Bush in early 2009, the national debt exceeded $10 trillion, while in the 8 years of Obama Administration, the national debt exceeded $9.3 trillion. As soon as Trump entered the White House, he faced a huge national debt of $19.7 trillion. By December 15th, 2017, the national debt had risen to $20.6 trillion, equivalent to 111% of 2016 GDP of $18.57 trillion, well above the 60% financial warning line, and the federal government was headed by a gilded "barrier lake".

II. Economic projections for the United States in 2018.

Judging from this, the US economy will grow slightly better in 2018 than in 2017, and GDP is expected to grow by 2.6-2.7%.

One decade after the great recession of 2009, 2019 coincides with the cycle of recession in the West. Now, some economists, including those in the United States, are predicting a possible recession in 2019. I believe that if there is a recession, it will be a mild one, because the United States economic recovery is relatively long, and has not yet reached prosperity.

The Declining U.S.-Russia Relations after Trump in Power

Feng Yujun

When Trump took office, he praised Putin and said he wanted to improve relations between the United States and Russia. Russia's top brass, meanwhile, also celebrated Trump's election and had high hopes for a "thaw" in Russia-US relations. However, practice over the past year has shown that US-Russia relations did not "restart", but rather almost entered a state of "crashed system", with the two countries "dissing" and "pinching" each other in many fields, with bilateral relations going in a downward spiral. This state of relations between the two countries was influenced by both domestic and international factors, which not only reflected their huge gap in strength and mutual understanding, but also reflects the profound changes in the structure of bilateral relations.

Under the circumstances, the prospects for US-Russia relations under Mr Trump's presidency are not encouraging. Because, in the eyes of many Americans, Trump's victory in the election is still illegal and is the result of "hostile Russian intervention". Therefore, "access to Russia" investigation occurred in the United States, searching for all evidence and signs of conspiracy related with the United States presidential election in Russia. Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at the Russian State higher School of Economics, believes that under such conditions, Trump's every step toward Russia, and even any personal contact with the Russian representative could jeopardize his political status in the United States. It is therefore impossible for the two heads of State to make significant progress in their contacts. The dispute over diplomatic property and the "media war" will not be resolved soon. It is hard to agree with him that "the simplest way to respond to a deep social and political crisis within the United States is to find an external enemy, so that as long as the new political system in the United States does not mature, these accusations and attacks against Russia will continue", but his conclusion is correct. That is, "before the US election in 2020", there will be no significant change in the trend of persistently low-level relations between the United States and Russia.

Trump’s Trip to Asia

Ding Yuanhong

On November 4 to November 14, Trump made his first trip to Asia since he became president of the United States. He visited Japan, the Republic of Korea, China, Vietnam and the Philippines, and attended the Informal APEC Leaders' Meeting held in Da Nang and the East Asia Summit held in Manila. This was the longest visit by a US president to Asian countries since President Bush Sr. visited Asia in 1992. As soon as Trump took office, he announced his withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (TPP), the economic pillar of Obama's Asia-Pacific Rebalancing Strategy, and declared that the period of "strategic patience" pursued by Obama on the North Korean nuclear issue had come to an end. As a result of the dramatic deterioration in the situation on the Korean peninsula, what will happen to Trump's Asia policy is of great concern to all countries around the world.

On November 2, before Trump began his trip to Asia, McMaster, the president's national security adviser, told reporters, "The president's visit will focus on three goals. The first is to strengthen the determination of the international community to achieve the denuclearization of North Korea; the second is to promote the building of a free and open Indian Ocean-Pacific region; and the third is to promote the prosperity of the United States through fair and mutually beneficial trade and economic exchanges." Judging from his words and deeds during his visit to Asia, Trump, who pursues "America first" policy, differs from Obama in advancing his Asia policy under the framework of the "Asia-Pacific Rebalancing Strategy", and he does not have a master plan in advance. But on the basis of "diplomacy of strength", he adopted different approaches to different Asian countries, or so-called "pluralistic" diplomacy, and the core one is to benefit the economy of the United States. The first is to reduce the US foreign trade deficit and increase US employment. That is to say, of the three major goals announced by McMaster, the third is essential, and the other two are to serve this fundamental goal.

First, the DPRK nuclear issue is in fact at an impasse. While the United States insists that all options, including military options, are being considered, it is in fact well aware of the "catastrophic" consequences of the use of force.

Second, the US proposal of "promoting the building of a free and open Indian Ocean-Pacific region" stems from Japan's efforts over the years to piece together the "strategic alliance" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia in response to China's rise.

Third, after the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, and a denial of the proposition of "opposing trade protectionism" written in the G20 summit statement which was agreed in Obama-era, and other measures, when attending the  Informal Meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders in Da Nang, Trump strongly criticized "multilateralism", further manifesting his exceptionally obvious feature of "unilateralism" in diplomatic contacts.

Fourth, China's "State visit plus" approach is a high-profile reception for Trump's visit. Following the meeting at Haihu Manor at the beginning of the year, the leaders of China and the United States reached consensus on Sino-US relations after a long period of communication. It is in the fundamental interests of the two peoples and to the benefit of world peace, stability and development.

Of course, Trump, as president of the United States, will ultimately be subordinate to and serve the national interest of the United States. Given that there is still a lot of anti-China forces in the United States, we can't expect too much from Trump personally. No matter how the state of affairs changes and how Sino-US relations evolve, we should follow the spirit of the 19th CPC National Congress, and unswervingly and confidently take Xi Jinping thought on Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a New era as a guide. We will embark on a new journey to advance socialist modernization.

The Forthcoming Trump’s New Asian Strategy

Jin Ruiting

The "India-Pacific Strategy" of the Trump administration is an expansion and replacement of the Obama administration's "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" strategy, aimed at creating a "diamond encirclement" of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia to contain the rise of China and advance into the blue sea. Although the "India-Pacific Strategy" is not yet fully formed, its planning, layout, and narrow interests will greatly increase the uncertainty of Sino-US relations, and pose a serious challenge to China's development space and peripheral security, and to the "Belt and Road" construction.

I. Trump's "India-Pacific Strategy" challenges China.

Second, we can judge the Indo-Pacific Strategy from the following three aspects:

Judgment 1: the main factors restricting the pace of Trump's "India-Pacific Strategy" are the domestic reform process in the United States, the changes in the situation in the Middle East, and the direction of the North Korean nuclear issue.

Judgment 2: Japan and India are likely to act as "pawns" against China.

Judgment 3: Trump's "Indo-Pacific Strategy" may break through the traditional "geographical scope," and a new treaty-based "flexible + mobile" cooperation system will emerge.

Driven by "America's interests first," Trump decisively abandoned multilateralism in the economic and diplomatic spheres and instead sought to regulate bilateral cooperation. Its "India-Pacific Strategy" will break through the traditional "geographical category", that is, it will no longer rely entirely on overseas military positions to maintain a normal deterrent presence. Instead, there has been a shift towards the establishment of flexible, mobile collaborative relationships based on bilateral multilateral alliance or quasi-alliance treaties, The aim is to be able to complete the time-space rotation of military forces in the established region in the shortest possible time and to ensure the realization of its hegemonic aspirations in Asia to the greatest extent. Recently, the United States, Japan and India conducted a joint "Malabar" military exercise in the Bay of Bengal, involving reconnaissance, maritime patrols, anti-submarine operations, aircraft carrier joint operations, and many other projects. In view of the importance of the "India-Pacific Strategy" for the United States to enhance the geo-value of Asia, in the future Trump may "make great efforts" to strengthen the status of the US-Japan, US-Australia, US-Japan-Australia alliance and enhance the US-India strategic defense partnership.

The Big Changes of Geopolitical Pattern in Middle East

Ding Yuanhong

On Oct. 12, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a new strategy for Iran, with disapproval of the Iran nuclear deal as the main content. The White House also issued a statement saying that the new strategy for Iran was drawn up by the president and his national security team after nine months of discussions with Congress, with a focus on "eliminating the destabilizing influence of the Iranian government and constraining its expansion." In particular, on its support for terrorism and militants, the statement concluded by stressing that "the United States will ensure that Iran will not be able to acquire nuclear weapons by any means." Neither Mr Trump's speech nor the White House statement made clear whether the US would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, leaving it to Congress to decide within 60 days whether to reactivate previously suspended sanctions against Iran. Mr Trump's move signals both a major shift in US policy towards Iran and a further shift in the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.

President Trump has said many times before and after taking office that the Iran nuclear deal is "the worst deal that we (the United States) have got". It is only a matter of time before Dr Kissinger, whose Republican majority in both houses of the US Senate and House of Representatives he respects, is still dissatisfied with the Iran nuclear deal. It is no accident, it seems, that Mr Trump's first foreign trip as president did not involve either allies in Europe or Asia or its neighbours in Canada or Mexico. Instead, he unexpectedly chose two of the Middle East's biggest allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel, with whom he signed huge military orders. The new strategy was worked out after nine months of discussion between the White House and Congress. This suggests that Mr Trump's change in policy on Iran at this time is a well-planned and long-planned move, not a personal impulse.

The rise and fall of great powers has its inherent law, and no hegemony can be sustained forever. American hegemony is on the wane, and this is independent of the subjective will of the people. Mr Trump's pursuit of ultranationalist policies, far from saving the decline of US hegemony, will only hasten the process. At present, more and more developing countries in the world are speeding up their development, and a number of countries with emerging economies are emerging one after another.China, which insists on building socialism with Chinese characteristics, has entered a "new era." Corresponding to this, developed countries such as the United States and Europe have encountered their own insurmountable problems and embarked on a bumpy and uneven downhill road. Just as the saying goes, "there are a thousand sails passing by the sunken ship, and there are ten thousand strong trees in front of the sick trees."

An Exploration of Top Design for China’s Housing Accumulation Fund System Reform

Huang Yanfen/Li Yida

I. The raising of issues

As the product of housing system reform, the housing accumulation fund system of our country has promoted the system transition of housing from physical distribution to monetary distribution, and promoted the transformation of housing system from welfare to market. After nearly 30 years of development, the housing provident fund system in China has been gradually improved -- the scale is expanding, and the social impact is increasing. At present, it has covered more than 120 million urban workers, with the balance paid in excess of 4 trillion yuan.

Under this background, this article combs the existing problems and reform difficulties of the housing provident fund system in our country, combines the spirit of the central working conference and bases on the national conditions. Standing on the height of establishing the basic system and long-term mechanism of real estate in our country, the function of the housing accumulation fund system in our country is positioned accurately, and the mutual aid housing policy financial system is put forward. This will help to ensure the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market in China.

II. Housing accumulation fund system reform: contention and evaluation.

In 1991, in order to promote the market-oriented reform of the housing system, the housing provident fund system was first tried out in Shanghai, and was later adopted by the central government as a national policy to be popularized throughout the country. The housing accumulation fund system plays an important role in promoting the housing market reform and improving the housing conditions in China. At present, the housing accumulation fund system is faced with many new problems, the fairness of the system is often questioned. Some scholars think that the problems of the housing provident fund system mainly lie in the unfairness between the people who are included in the system and those who are outside the system because of the narrow coverage, and because the interest rate of the housing provident fund is low, the threshold of use is high, and the area of utilization rate is high. The internal "robbing the rich to help the poor" caused by the imbalance between the rich and the poor. Scholars put forward a variety of reform programs, but there are some limitations.

For a period of time, some people suggested that the housing provident fund system should withdraw from the stage of history or with pension, medical care, employment into the big social security. This comprehensive denial of the housing provident fund system is obviously unreasonable, in recent years, these two voices gradually waned. Today, the housing provident fund system reform mainly has the following two directions:

(1) to improve within the existing institutional framework

(2) to transform the housing provident fund management center into a policy-oriented financial institution

III. The problems and difficulties in the reform of the housing accumulation fund system in China

(1) the mystery of functional location -- how to accurately position the housing accumulation fund system under the current economic background

(2) the difficulties of territorial management -- how to coordinate the interests of the central and local governments when breaking the system of territorial management of housing provident fund system

(3) the disturbance of potential risks -- how to effectively prevent the potential systematic risks in the operation of the housing provident fund system

IV. The top design of the reform plan of housing accumulation fund system in our country

(I) the re-positioning of the housing provident fund system: mutual housing policy finance

(2) to establish a mutual housing policy financial system with the central housing provident fund bank as the center, and to break the territorial management system of the housing provident fund system by co-ordinating the interests of the central and local governments

(3) advantages of this option

The central housing provident fund bank convergences with the People's Bank of China and the financial market, breaking the housing provident fund closed mode of operation of funds while ensuring the safety of funds, in preparation for the future large-scale securitization of housing mortgage loans. The central housing provident fund bank has direct contact with the People's Bank of China and the financial market. It can disperse the risk of housing accumulation fund through the whole financial system and resolve the risk of housing accumulation fund through the external financial system. With the continuous development of the housing finance market, the financial products related to the housing mortgage loan will appear one after another. The housing provident fund system will be linked with the financial market, which is conducive to the development of more diversified housing loan products. In order to lay the foundation for the housing mortgage securitization in the future, it is conducive to the long-term healthy and stable development of the real estate market.

China in a Critical Period of Uphill Climb to Build Social Credit

Fei Yang

China has attached great importance to credit since ancient times. Lao Tzu once said, "If a man has no credit, he will not stand; if a business has no credit, he will not prosper; if the country has no credit, it will decline." Credit refers to the relations of production and social relations formed by mutual trust between individuals, units and commodity transactions. The general principles of the Civil Law of the People's Republic of China clearly stipulates that "Civil activities shall abide by the principles of free will, fairness, compensation for equal value, honesty and trustworthiness." The Contract Law of the people's Republic of China requires that "The parties shall be honest to others, be truthful and abide by their promises, and interpret the contract in accordance with the principle of good faith when disputes arise over the content, significance and application of the contract." In a word, credit is one of the cornerstones of the real economic operation.

I. Construction of Government Credit System

II. Construction of Enterprise Credit System

III. Construction of Social Organization Credit System

IV. Construction of Individual Credit System

All in all, the social credit system is an important part of the socialist market economic system and social governance system. The social credit system is based on the relatively perfect system of laws and regulations, centered on the establishment and perfection of credit information sharing mechanism, and driven by the cultivation and formation of the credit service market. The national social governance mechanism is supported by the continuous improvement of the competitiveness of the main body of the credit service industry and guaranteed by the strong regulatory system of the government. Government credit, enterprise credit, social organization credit and individual credit are four in one. Accelerating the construction of social credit system is of great significance to enhance the credit awareness of social members, create a good credit environment, enhance the overall competitiveness of the country, and promote social development and progress of civilization. In view of the long-term, systematic and complex nature of the construction of the social credit system, we should strengthen the top-level design, base on the present, take a long-term view, coordinate the overall situation, make a systematic plan, and organize the implementation in a planned and step-by-step manner.

An Analysis of Reasons for U.S. Military Base Deployment in the Great Middle East

Sun Degang

The United States is the only super military power in the world that carries out global military deployments. The attack radius of its overseas military bases covers three major areas of strategic interest: Western Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Greater Middle East. Through overseas military bases, the United States has changed from a remote "marginal country" in the western hemisphere into a "close neighbor" in the three key areas of the "world island", helping the United States to overcome its geographical disadvantages, intervene in regional affairs, "divide and rule" various war zones, and prevent regional powers from passing through. Regional integration to promote "de-Americanization" provides a handle.

At present, the US global deployment of military bases is mainly distributed in three major regions. First, there are European military base groups, including Germany, Britain, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and so on, with about 120000 personnel; the second is the Asia-Pacific military base group with about 80,000 people, including Japan, South Korea, Okinawa, Guam, Singapore, the Philippines, and Australia; and third, the Great Middle East military base group, including the Gulf Cooperation Council and Afghanistan under the jurisdiction of the United States Central Command, Turkey under the European Command, and Djibouti under the African Command, have approximately 70,000 personnel.

This paper argues that US military bases in the Great Middle East are an important part of its global military deployment, taking into account four factors: strategically maintaining global leadership, enhancing military projection capability, consolidating the regional alliance system politically, and protecting the practical interests.

I. Strategic maintenance of leadership.

The main thread that runs through the US global military deployment is the consolidation of US global leadership. Maintaining America's position in the world has become the primary objective of its foreign strategy. Overseas military bases are the common pursuit of American internationalists and isolationists. The former held that, like the Roman Empire, the United States was a superpower militarily, politically, economically, and culturally, and that the United States was capable of leading and transforming the world; while the latter believed that the United States wanted to safeguard its homeland security, and to keep the enemy out of the country and push the battlefield to the enemy's country. As Robert Kaplan, an American scholar, said, U.S. imperialism is actually an expression of isolationism-the United States must conquer the world in order to maintain the absolute security of its homeland; This includes maintaining strategic balance and military leadership in key areas. Conquering the world is not only the need for the United States to maintain absolute security, but also an important means for the United States to spread the "gospel".

II. Enhanced military projection capability.

Mahan pointed out that the two main criteria for a country's strength are huge overseas trade and victory in the war, both of which rely on an effective and strong navy. The development of the navy is inseparable from offshore gas stations and overseas military bases.

III. Political consolidation of the Union system.

US military bases abroad are politically designed to strengthen regional alliances. In June 1948, the United States Senate adopted the Vandenberg Agreement, which provided for "regional or other arrangements" for individual or collective self-defence; in October 1949, the United States Congress passed the Common Defense Assistance Act, which provided a complete legal basis for the United States to carry out the alliance strategy after World War II. In the US global strategy, no matter whether it is East Asia, the Greater Middle East, or Europe, it is a "split" region. The United States distinguishes these interests into two groups of forces, which are pro-American and anti-American, moderate and radical, progressive and evil, observing international order and challenging international order, and so on. So-called countries with "democracy", "moderation", "adherence to the international order" and "progress" are often seen as allies of the United States, while those with "dictatorship", "radicalization", "challenges to the international order" and "evil" are seen as the opposite of the United States. By deploying military bases on the lands of its allies, the United States has further strengthened the division and internal strife among regional countries and laid the foundation for the United States to act as the "arbiter", balancing hand", and "leader" of the military alliance.

IV. Economic protection of real interests.

In addition to strategic, military, and political considerations, the United States deploys military bases in the greater Middle East out of consideration for safeguarding its practical interests. The National Security Strategy report of the United States in 1990 pointed out that the national interests of the United States include: (1) safeguarding the survival and security of the United States as a free and independent nation; (2) promoting the steady growth of the United States economy; and (3) maintaining a stable and secure world and promoting freedom, human rights and democracy; (iv) maintaining healthy partnerships with allies. The real interests of the United States in the Great Middle East include arms interests, economic and trade interests, security of overseas Chinese and the provision of regional public goods, which have become an important motivation for the deployment of American military bases in the Great Middle East.

V. Conclusion

This paper takes the Great Middle East as an example to investigate the motivation of the deployment of American overseas military bases. The study finds that the United States endows overseas military bases with multiple functions, its self-constructed "superpower" status, and its mutual expectation of the so-called "special mission" of the United States formed in its interaction with other big countries and countries in the region. It determines how the US behaves differently from other great powers: it deploys more bases than it actually needs, even when its power is massively weak. The United States is the only superpower in the world, while Britain, France, Russia, Japan, and China are regional powers with global influence. Therefore, the more decline of the national power of the United States, the greater the need is to use military bases in the Great Middle East to "justify" itself. Although the Trump administration has become less dependent on the energy of the Great Middle East and has shifted its focus from global affairs to the US itself, the four goals have not fundamentally changed. The political symbolism of overseas military bases is as important as the significance of military operations. The deployment of US military bases in the Great Middle East will continue to perform both traditional and non-traditional functions.

The United States has now established 587 military bases around the world, and the Department of Defense says it can project military power to any international crisis site within two hours. But the foundations of the Al-Qaida are beginning to falter in the Great Middle East, as Russia, Iran and Turkey warmed up in the Syrian crisis, replacing the United States for greater influence. To maintain overseas military personnel, facilities, fleets, and pay for the rental of bases, the United States spends an average of $250 billion a year on overseas military deployments, which is undoubtedly adding pressure to the US economy, which has been in a prolonged downturn. It remains to be seen whether overseas military bases will be the "last straw" that will overwhelm the US economy and challenge the international moral legitimacy of the Trump administration.

Review and Prospect of Cross-strait Economic and Trade Situation for 2017 and 2018

Wen Jiu

In 2017, economic exchanges and cooperation between the two sides of the Strait showed a marked pattern of "officially being cold while people-to-people being hot" and "trade being hot while investment being cold". Despite the interruption of the cross-strait economic exchange and cooperation mechanism dominated by public power, cross-strait non-governmental economic exchanges and cooperation still maintain a positive momentum of development, and some new features and new bright spots have emerged. Under the background of international economic recovery and the increase of external economic demand, cross-strait trade shows a relatively rapid growth momentum, but the progress of cross-strait mutual investment is relatively limited, or even declining. In 2018, the development of cross-strait economic and trade relations is expected to continue to maintain this pattern and situation.

Cross-strait trade tends to be hot and investment is relatively cold.

In 2017, against the backdrop of an international economic recovery, an increase in external demand and steady economic growth on the mainland, cross-strait trade maintained a relatively rapid growth rate and once again achieved double-digit growth. Mainland enterprises' investment in Taiwan shows a downward trend.

Although the amount of Taiwanese investment in the mainland has increased only marginally, or even declined, especially the significant decrease in the development and distribution of Taiwan's financial industry in the mainland--in 2017, only the Changhua Bank in Nanjing and the Guotai Shihua Bank in Shanghai were approved by the mainland to set up their branches, and Fubon Financial took an equity stake in Fubon Bank (Hong Kong) in Xiamen Bank--but competitive Taiwanese companies continue to expand their investment on the mainland.

New highlight of Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Cooperation.

Despite the deadlock in cross-strait relations and the rise in cross-strait political confrontation, economic exchanges and cooperation between the two sides of the strait have still made important progress, and there are still some bright spots worth paying attention to.

The craze for economic exchanges and cooperation between the two sides of the strait have continued, and the cross-strait entrepreneurs summit has become the largest platform.

In 2017, despite the deadlock between the two sides of the strait, the situation of "political cold and economic fever" and "official cold and people hot", the cross-strait non-governmental economic and trade exchanges and cooperation activities are still very frequent and continue to develop forward.

In 2018, cross-strait non-governmental economic exchanges and cooperation will continue to be the main theme of the development of cross-strait economic and trade relations, and cross-strait enterprises and local governments on the mainland will continue to be the main players in promoting and acting on cross-strait economic and trade relations. The cross-strait entrepreneurs' summit still shoulders the important task of promoting cross-strait enterprise cooperation and cross-strait economic and trade cooperation, and plays an important role in assisting and promoting it.

Blueprint for National Development in the 19^th CPC National Congress Report and Taiwan Merchants’ New Opportunities

--How to Explore Business Opportunities by Grasping Chance in Mainland Economic Development

Wang Jianmin/Liu Zhaoxun

The 19th CPC National Congress has drawn a grand blueprint for the future development of the country, marking the mainland's economic and social development has entered a new era. The blueprint for national development has also created a huge space for the development of cross-strait economic cooperation and cross-strait economic and social integration, and provided a rare historical opportunity for Taiwan businessmen to integrate into the development of the mainland. Taiwan businessmen should have the spirit of being masters of the country, break through political obstacles, and actively participate in the historical process of the country's economic development and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with a broader vision and long-term goal, and share the business opportunities and dividends of the mainland's development. We will jointly create a new situation for cross-strait economic cooperation and jointly create a new era of prosperity for China.

I. To grasp the orientation of national economic development revealed by the 19th CPC National Congress and the development environment and business opportunities it has created.

(1) Be fully aware of the tremendous opportunities unleashed by the continued opening up of the mainland to the outside world.

(2) Grasp the business opportunities of green, environmental protection and circular economy released by "building a beautiful China".

(3) Make full use of the key points of the development of the mainland and grasp the business opportunities of the plate of balanced development and the development of the large region.

(4) Pay attention to the policy orientation and business opportunities revealed by the discourses on policies concerning Taiwan.

II. To adapt to the rapid development of the mainland economy, new business type and the new business model.

Now the economic and social development of the mainland is changing faster with more innovations and more creativity leading the direction of global economic development. Among them, the so-called "New Four Great Inventions" of the mainland is the symbol of the development of the mainland's new economy. In the future, Taiwan investment in the mainland should take the road of specialization, refinement, innovation and differentiation, give full play to its unique advantages, and adapt itself to the new normal, new business type, and the new business model of the mainland's economic development.

(1) It is necessary to integrate into the mainland's economic chain, industrial chain, ecological chain, and value chain, which is the new direction and new trend of cross-strait economic cooperation.

(2) With the help of the mainland market and the development of common technical standards and cooperation, Taiwan businessmen will be able to bring into full play their technological advantages and gain the greatest market benefits and the opportunity for development. Taiwan and mainland enterprises in different industries, different areas and even the same industry in different sectors will have their own advantages in technology, no one country or region can monopolize all of the technology.

(3) We should be good at grasping and participating in the economic innovation of the mainland and adapt to the new business model of the mainland and new business type.

III. Market scale effects and business opportunities in different industries and fields in the mainland.

The advantages of the mainland's economic development lie not only in the guidance of the central government's economic and industrial policy planning, but also in the integrity and perfection of the industrial system, as well as the huge market scale and market potential. This is even more attractive for Taiwan businessmen to invest and develop in the mainland, and it is also an important driving force for cross-strait economic cooperation.

(1) Actively participate in mainland-led investment in regional infrastructure.

(2) Grasp the business opportunities in the mainland capital market.

(3) Take advantage of the market scale, business opportunities and effects of the new economy and new industries in the mainland.

Intelligent economy and market potential: artificial intelligence is emerging and developing rapidly. Statistics show that the current global technology giant investment in artificial intelligence reached $30 billion, from various technology companies on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Artificial intelligence will contribute as much as $1.8 trillion to $3 trillion a year in economic value to Asia by 2030, according to the UBS study, and will have a huge impact on sectors such as financial services, health care, manufacturing, retail and transport.